无需悲观，以我为主——对特朗普关税风波再起的思考

Group 1 - The report indicates that the recent tariff threats from Trump are not expected to have the same impact as the "reciprocal tariffs" from April, suggesting a more emotional short-term impact rather than a fundamental shift in the A-share market's "slow bull" trend [4][25]. - The report highlights that the market has gained some understanding of Trump's tariff tools, indicating a learning effect that may mitigate the shock from new tariffs [3][21]. - The report emphasizes that China's rapid countermeasures, including export controls on rare earths and lithium batteries, demonstrate the country's determination to protect its interests against U.S. technology restrictions [3][24]. Group 2 - The report suggests that the technology sector and advanced manufacturing are expected to remain strong, with a focus on self-sufficiency and countermeasures in response to external shocks [26][34]. - The report notes that the "Red October" effect historically shows positive returns in October and November, indicating a favorable time for market positioning [26][27]. - The report identifies that sectors such as rare metals, particularly those related to AI and energy storage, are likely to see continued interest due to geopolitical uncertainties and supply disruptions [51][52].