可转债周度追踪：新一轮宏观事件主导期-20251012

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term equity markets are expected to adjust due to Sino - US relations, but the long - term trend of stronger stocks and weaker bonds may not reverse. The adjustment of the equity market will determine the subsequent trend of convertible bonds, which are likely to show resilience. [1][2][11] - Structural opportunities in convertible bonds are better than overall market conditions. Low - premium varieties are more resilient, and mid - and low - priced convertible bonds have strong gaming value. Investors can select varieties with "double - low" (low price + low premium) or "low price + high elasticity" potential. [2][11] - Convertible bonds in a high - valuation state show stagnation and vulnerability. However, there are positive signals on the supply side, and the market may improve marginally in 2026. The recent tariff issue is likely to be a one - time shock rather than a trend - setting impact. [4][9][10] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 1. Convertible Bond Weekly Thinking - High - valuation convertible bonds show stagnation and vulnerability. ETF and "fixed - income +" funds have small net outflows, but the pace has slowed. [9] - There are positive signals on the supply side, with an increase in issuance plans and faster regulatory approvals, which may alleviate the "few bonds and high prices" situation. [4][10] - The recent tariff issue is more of a threat than an actual operation, and the market may view it as a one - time shock. [4][10] - Short - term equity market adjustment is expected, but convertible bonds are likely to be resilient. Structural opportunities are better, and specific convertible bonds are recommended for October. [11][12] 3.2 2. Convertible Bond Market Tracking - 2.1 Convertible Bond Market Conditions: The document provides the performance of various convertible bond indices in different time periods, such as the WanDe Convertible Bond Energy Index, WanDe Convertible Bond Materials Index, etc. [17] - 2.2 Convertible Bond Individual Securities: The document does not provide specific summarized content for this part. - 2.3 Convertible Bond Valuation: The document shows the valuation trends of different types of convertible bonds, including bond - type, balanced, and stock - type convertible bonds. [21][23][25] - 2.4 Convertible Bond Price: The document presents the proportion trend of high - price bonds and the median price trend of convertible bonds. [32][34]