2025年第41周周报:养猪进入全面亏损,后市如何解读?-20251012
Tianfeng Securities·2025-10-12 13:16

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained as "Outperform the Market" [11] Core Insights - The pig farming sector is experiencing comprehensive losses, with a focus on the expected differences in the sector [3][15] - The dairy and beef sectors are anticipated to enter a new cycle, with opportunities in the beef industry [4][17] - The pet industry is witnessing a rise of domestic brands and a positive trend in pet food exports [5][19] - The poultry sector is focusing on breeding gaps and improving consumer demand for yellow chickens [6][24] - The seed industry is waiting for a turnaround, emphasizing opportunities in biological breeding [7][27] - The feed sector is recommended for companies with increasing market share and consistent performance [8][28] Summary by Sections Pig Farming Sector - The industry is in comprehensive losses, with a significant drop in pig prices, down 9.37% to 11.41 CNY/kg as of October 11 [15] - The average loss per pig is 77.09 CNY, with a notable increase in the number of sows being culled [15][16] - Key companies to focus on include Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs, with valuations at historical lows [3][16] Beef Sector - Raw milk prices are stabilizing, and the beef cycle may have started, with a focus on companies with mother cow resources [4][17] - The average price of live cattle is 27.16 CNY/kg, showing a year-on-year increase of 13.6% [17] Pet Industry - Domestic brands are rapidly growing, with significant sales increases in pet food, particularly on platforms like Douyin [5][18] - Pet food exports reached 230,400 tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.23% [19] Poultry Sector - The white chicken sector is focusing on breeding imports, with a 21.78% year-on-year decrease in breeding stock [21][22] - Yellow chicken prices are expected to improve due to supply constraints and increasing consumer demand [24] Seed Industry - The seed industry is expected to see a turnaround, with a focus on high-yield production and the integration of advanced agricultural technologies [27] - Recommended companies include Longping High-Tech and Dabeinong [27] Feed Sector - Hai Da Group is highlighted for its increasing market share and consistent performance in the feed sector [28] - The sector is expected to recover as smaller companies exit the market, leading to improved conditions [28]