逢调整参与反弹

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rebound of 10-year Treasury bond futures has begun since September 25, and it's advisable to participate in the rebound on dips. T2512 may rise above the September 17 high of 108.165 on Monday. If so, it's considered the fourth wave of the decline since May, and one can consider participating in the rebound on dips. First, pay attention to the resistance around the low of the first wave at 108.41. If this level is broken, from a quarterly line perspective, focus on the resistance around 108.93. There may still be adjustments after the rebound ends [2][10]. - Treasury bond futures rose overall this week, except for TS which declined. The trading activity of Treasury bond futures decreased overall. The average daily trading volume of the 2512 contracts of each maturity decreased compared with last week, except for TS2512 which increased. The volume/position ratio decreased for all maturities except for TS2512 which rebounded. The CTD net basis of the 2512 contracts increased across the board, and the IRR decreased overall. Currently, the IRR is around 1.3%-1.4%, still relatively low compared with the funding rate, so the value of participating in the cash-and-carry strategy is limited, and it's better to wait for a better opportunity [3]. Group 3: Summary Based on Related Catalogs 1. Weekly Technical Analysis 1.1 Pre - trend Review - T2512 closed with a negative line in the third quarter and a doji in September. Since September 25, it has continued to rebound, and the level of the rebound may expand. On October 10, the rebound hit resistance at the 60 - day line, but the spot bonds performed well on Saturday. If there is no significant fluctuation before the market opens on Monday, T2512 may rise further, and the lowest price on September 25 may become a phased low [7]. 1.2 Future Market Outlook - Due to the significant decline in the spot Treasury bond yield on Saturday, T2512 may rise above the September 17 high of 108.165 on Monday, completely retracing the previous decline. The previous adjustment may have ended on September 25, and it's currently the fourth wave of the decline since May. One can consider participating in the rebound on dips. If it rises above 108.165 on Monday, the period from July 7 to September 25 is considered the third wave of the decline since early May, which extended and had nine sub - waves, with the fifth wave being an ending diagonal triangle. First, pay attention to the resistance around 108.41, and if broken, focus on the resistance around 108.93 from a quarterly line perspective. There may still be adjustments after the rebound ends [10]. 2. Weekly Tracking of Treasury Bond Futures - After the holiday, Treasury bond futures rose overall. As of the close on October 10, the closing prices of the 2512 contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures were 102.354, 105.650, 107.980, and 113.97 yuan respectively, with changes of - 0.018, + 0.020, + 0.135, and + 0.07 yuan compared with before the holiday [15]. - The trading activity of Treasury bond futures decreased overall this week. The average daily trading volume of the 2512 contracts of each maturity decreased compared with last week, except for TS2512 which increased. The volume/position ratio decreased for all maturities except for TS2512 which rebounded [3][15]. - As of October 10, the positions of the 2512 contracts of Treasury bond futures were divided, with TS and TF decreasing and T and TL increasing [15]. - As of October 10, the CTD net basis of the 2512 contracts of each maturity increased across the board, with the CTD net basis of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year 2512 contracts being + 0.01, 0.00, + 0.02, and + 0.01 yuan respectively [20]. - In terms of IRR, the IRR corresponding to the CTD of the 2512 contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures were 1.37%, 1.42%, 1.33%, and 1.41% respectively, all of which decreased. Currently, the IRR level is not high compared with the funding rate, so the value of participating in the cash-and-carry strategy is limited, and it's better to wait for a better opportunity [20]. - The spread between the 2512 - 2603 contracts was divided this week, with the spreads of 5 - year and 10 - year decreasing, and the spreads of 2 - year and 30 - year showing no obvious change [20].