外汇周报：贸易风险抬头，汇率未现突破-20251012

Group 1: Market Analysis - USD/CNY - China's export growth in August 2025 slowed to 4.4% year-on-year, the lowest in six months, and exports to the US declined by about 33.1% year-on-year. Import growth was weak, and overall import-export momentum weakened [1]. - Trump announced on October 10 that an additional 100% tariff on Chinese goods would be imposed starting from November 1, signaling an escalation of Sino-US trade friction. This increases external pressure on the RMB, and there is a risk of RMB depreciation if the tariffs are eventually implemented [1]. - The new tariff proposal increased the short - term market demand for the US dollar as a safe - haven asset. The US dollar index attempted to rebound this week, but the increase narrowed without breaking through major resistance levels [1]. - The Fed's meeting minutes continued to send a dovish signal, with officials inclined to further interest rate cuts in the future, but inflation risks and balance - sheet adjustments were still widely concerned. Due to the partial government shutdown in the US, the release of core economic data was restricted, limiting the US dollar's upward momentum [1]. Group 2: Fundamental Analysis of Exchange Rates - Economic expectation differentials are favorable for the RMB. There is a divergence in the market's view of the US dollar's future path due to the co - existence of economic growth and inflation. China has policy intervention and domestic demand support despite export and manufacturing downward pressure [2]. - The Sino - US interest rate differential is favorable for the RMB. With the decline of short - term US interest rates and China not significantly cutting interest rates, the interest rate differential may tilt towards the RMB [2]. - Trade policy uncertainty is favorable for the US dollar. Trump's announcement of a 100% tariff on Chinese imports starting from November 1 signals an escalation risk of trade friction, which may trigger short - term exchange rate fluctuations [2]. Group 3: Other Currencies - The euro is under new downward pressure due to political upheaval in France. The resignation of French Prime Minister Lecornu and the subsequent attempt to form a new cabinet have raised questions about the stability of the French government, weakening market confidence in the eurozone's fiscal policy implementation and causing the euro to be under pressure against the US dollar [3]. - The Japanese yen has come under pressure recently. After conservative politician Takaichi Sanae was elected as the new leader of the Liberal Democratic Party, the market generally expects more stimulative economic policies, leading to an increase in long - term bond yields. On the day of Takaichi's victory, the yen fell more than 1.9% against the US dollar to 150.35, the largest single - day decline in five months. The widening of the US - Japan interest rate differential and carry - trade sentiment have further exacerbated the pressure on the yen [3]. Group 4: Strategies - For the USD/CNY exchange rate, during the window period when the tariff suspension is extended to November, the exchange rate is likely to remain in the range of 7.10 - 7.20 in the short term. Key factors to watch include the Fed's interest rate movements, US employment and inflation data, and the implementation of Sino - US trade policies [4]. - The euro is expected to be weak against the US dollar in the short term due to the weak eurozone economy, limited policy space, and political instability in France [4]. - The USD/JPY exchange rate may continue its upward trend in the short term due to changes in the Japanese political situation, the widening interest rate differential, and carry - trade flows. However, if the Bank of Japan intervenes or changes its policy, it may resist the upward momentum of the US dollar [5].