黄金半年报：财政赤字高企、TGA余额上升显示财政回笼，经济指标短期企稳

Report Industry Investment Rating No specific investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The recent U.S. Treasury market shows a significant rebound driven by interest rate cuts. With increasing signs of economic slowdown and delayed release of key data due to government shutdown, the market is fully betting on monetary easing. The probability of a 25bp rate cut in October is nearly 98%, and the probability of a cumulative 50bp rate cut by the end of the year exceeds 96%. This has led to a decline in the yields of 5 - year and 10 - year U.S. Treasuries, indicating a sharp drop in market risk appetite and a return of safe - haven demand. At the same time, the decline in oil prices and the easing of the Middle East situation have strengthened the expectation of inflation decline, further increasing the buying of U.S. Treasuries and creating a loose resonance in the global bond market [6]. - However, the long - term support for U.S. Treasuries is undergoing structural changes. Foreign central banks are reducing their holdings of U.S. Treasuries and increasing their gold reserves, reflecting a decline in trust in U.S. dollar assets. The market is worried about the U.S. debt reaching $37 trillion and the annualized interest expenditure exceeding military spending, which may trigger a debt critical - point risk. In the long run, the core logic of U.S. Treasuries is shifting from a simple safe - haven asset to a focus of the game between trust and risk re - balance. Short - term trends are dominated by interest rate cut expectations, while long - term trends depend on the U.S. fiscal path, international capital allocation, and re - verification of inflation data [9]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. U.S. Treasury Yield Review - As of October 10, the 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield has dropped 15bp in two weeks, falling to 4.05%. Compared with two weeks ago, the 2 - year U.S. Treasury yield has dropped 11bp, and the 30 - year U.S. Treasury yield has dropped 14bp. Both short - and long - term bond yields have declined in the past two weeks [2]. 2. U.S. Treasury Market Changes - In terms of actual bond issuance, the duration of U.S. Treasury issuance increased slightly in early October. The issuance amounts were $57.84 billion for 3 - year, $38.92 billion for 10 - year, and $21.96 billion for 30 - year bonds. The U.S. fiscal deficit in August was $344.8 billion, and the 12 - month cumulative deficit slightly declined to $1.89 trillion [2]. 3. Derivatives Market Structure - The net short positions in U.S. Treasury futures have slightly declined. As of September 23, the net short positions of speculators, leveraged funds, asset management companies, and primary dealers have dropped to 5.738 million contracts. Meanwhile, the federal funds rate futures market remains in a net short position, rising to 395,400 contracts [2]. 4. U.S. Dollar Liquidity and U.S. Economy 4.1 Monetary Policy - On September 18, the Fed cut the federal funds rate target range by 25bp to 4.00% - 4.25%, the first rate cut in nine months this year. The Fed's statement showed increased concern about the labor market by deleting the description of "robust labor market conditions" and adding statements about "slowing employment growth, a slight increase in the unemployment rate, and increased risks of employment decline" [3]. 4.2 Fiscal Policy - As of October 8, the U.S. Treasury's TGA deposit balance increased by $2.572 billion on a two - week - on - two - week basis, indicating fiscal money withdrawal [3]. 4.3 Economic Indicators - As of October 4, the Fed's weekly economic indicator was 2.42 (2.07 two weeks ago), showing that the economy has improved after a short - term stabilization [3].