Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-10-12 13:46Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious outlook on the food and beverage industry, suggesting that the industry is still in a bottoming phase and requires patience for recovery [5][6]. Core Insights - The food and beverage sector is advised to focus on structural opportunities, particularly in leading companies that offer high dividends and have long-term investment value, such as high-end liquor brands and major dairy companies [5][6]. - The liquor industry is expected to face continued pressure, with inventory levels high and demand weak, particularly in the context of the upcoming Spring Festival [6][7]. - The report highlights the importance of new consumption trends and structural growth opportunities in the consumer goods sector, recommending companies that align with these trends [5][7]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Perspective on Food and Beverage - The food and beverage sector saw a slight decline of 0.15% last week, with liquor down 1.17%, underperforming the broader market [4]. - The top-performing stocks included Zhuangyuan Pasture and Yangyuan Beverage, while the worst performers included Huanlejia and Gujing Gongjiu [4]. 2. Market Performance of Food and Beverage Segments - The food and beverage industry outperformed the Shenwan A index by 0.27 percentage points, with beverage and dairy sectors showing the strongest performance [28]. 3. Liquor Sector Insights - The report indicates that the average price for Moutai is 1765 RMB per bottle, down 35 RMB from the previous period, while Wuliangye is priced at approximately 830 RMB, also showing a decline [6][11]. - Overall demand for liquor is projected to decrease by 20-30% year-on-year during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day period, with inventory levels expected to rise by 10-20% [6][7]. 4. Consumer Goods Sector Insights - The report expresses optimism regarding the dairy sector due to declining costs and improving supply-demand dynamics, recommending companies like Yili and New Dairy [7]. - The snack and beverage segments are highlighted for their structural growth potential, with recommendations for companies like Unified Enterprises and Weilong [7].