关税扰动反复，什么可以借鉴？：——债券周报20251012-20251012

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since the US "reciprocal tariff" took effect on April 3, 2025, Sino-US trade frictions have occurred from time to time. The bond market usually prices tariff events quickly, and the impact amplitude and persistence may weaken as tariff frictions become more normalized. If subsequent Sino-US tariff games continue, bond yields may first decline rapidly and then fluctuate on a new platform [2]. - After the tariff event, risk appetite may cool slightly compared to the third quarter. If the equity market weakens, the stock-bond seesaw effect will support the bond market, and the market's expectation of the central bank's interest rate cut may fluctuate, promoting a phased easing of bond market sentiment. However, the bond market is still in a volatile market, and the space for a significant decline in yields is limited. It may fluctuate around a new range of 1.7%-1.75% in the short term [3][35]. - In the future, it is necessary to pay attention to the progress of Sino-US negotiations and the reaction of the equity market. The configuration disk does not need to replenish positions immediately but can gradually build positions during market adjustments. The trading disk can operate in small bands of 3-5bp. Credit bonds may have a supplementary increase, and attention should be paid to the coupon opportunities of general credit bonds and the short-term trading opportunities of perpetual bonds [4]. Summary by Directory I. Tariff Disturbances Recur, but This Time It's Different (1) Event Review: Sino-US Frictions Have Intensified Since October - On the evening of October 10, Trump announced an additional 100% tariff on Chinese goods exported to the US starting from November 1, and export controls on all key software. Since October, frictions have emerged in multiple aspects such as ship fees, rare earth export controls, and anti-monopoly investigations. This event is similar to the April tariff event but different in the game situation, with stronger controllability and leaving room for subsequent negotiations [7][12]. (2) Bond Market Performance: Long-Term Pricing Is Fast, and Both Trading and Allocation Enter Actively - On the morning of October 11, bond yields declined rapidly, with both interest rate and credit bonds recovering. The yields of 10y and 30y treasury bonds and 10y CDB bonds declined by 3-5bp, outperforming the short-term. High-grade credit bond yields generally declined, with bonds over 5 years performing better, especially the perpetual bonds of banks leading the rise. Institutions such as funds and securities firms actively went long on interest rate bonds [7][17][22]. II. How Has Tariff Disturbance Affected the Market This Year? - Since the US "reciprocal tariff" took effect on April 3, Sino-US trade frictions have affected the bond market. By sorting out the performance of the 10-year treasury bond active bond at 9 key tariff points, it is found that the bond market usually prices tariff events quickly, and the impact amplitude and persistence may weaken as tariff frictions become more normalized. The yield range of the 10-year treasury bond active bond mostly fluctuates within 3BP, and the bond market usually completes pricing within 4 trading days [2][29][34]. III. The Bond Market's Short-Term Sentiment Eases, and Attention Should Be Paid to Gradually Adding Positions During Fluctuations - After the tariff event, bond yields may still have a small downward space, but the bond market is still in a volatile market, and the space for a significant decline in yields is limited. It may fluctuate around a new range of 1.7%-1.75% in the short term. In the future, it is necessary to pay attention to the progress of Sino-US negotiations and the reaction of the equity market. Different investment strategies are proposed for different types of investors, and credit bonds may have a supplementary increase [3][35][40]. IV. Review of the Interest Rate Bond Market: The Stock Market's Phased Volatility and the Escalation of Tariff Frictions Have Eased Bond Market Sentiment (1) Funding Situation: The Central Bank's OMO Has Significantly Net Recovered, and the Funding Situation Is Balanced and Loose - The central bank's OMO has significantly net recovered funds, but the overall funding situation is balanced and loose. DR001 and DR007 weighted prices have declined, and the funding sentiment index has been relatively stable [11][50][51]. (2) Primary Issuance: The Net Financing of Treasury Bonds, Policy Financial Bonds, and Interbank Certificates of Deposit Has Increased, While the Net Financing of Local Bonds Has Decreased - The net financing of treasury bonds, policy financial bonds, and interbank certificates of deposit has increased, while the net financing of local bonds has decreased [57][59][61]. (3) Benchmark Changes: The Term Spreads of Treasury Bonds and CDB Bonds Have Both Narrowed - The short-term yields of treasury bonds and CDB bonds have declined, and the long-term yields have declined more significantly, resulting in a narrowing of the term spreads [55].