资产配置周报：关注财报季的业绩基本面驱动，把握科技、资源主线-20251012

Core Viewpoints - Focus on the performance fundamentals driven by the earnings season, emphasizing technology and resource sectors [7][8] Global Asset Review - Global stock markets mostly declined during the week of October 10, with the Nikkei 225 leading gains due to policy expectations from Japan's new ruling party president, while major markets erased gains from the holiday period due to US-China trade tensions [11][12] - Major commodity futures saw gold and aluminum prices rise, while crude oil and copper prices fell; the US dollar index increased, leading to depreciation of major non-USD currencies [11][12] Domestic Equity Market Review - In the domestic equity market for the week ending October 10, cyclical stocks outperformed financials, consumption, and growth sectors, with an average daily trading volume of 25,869 billion yuan, up from 21,743 billion yuan [16] - Among the 31 primary industries tracked, 17 sectors rose while 14 fell, with notable gains in non-ferrous metals (+4.44%), coal (+4.41%), and steel (+4.18%), while media (-3.83%), electronics (-2.63%), and electric equipment (-2.52%) saw significant declines [18] Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - The liquidity environment is expected to remain loose, supported by seasonal fiscal spending and cash inflows post-holiday, despite pressures from tax payments and policy tool expirations [9][19] - The yield on 10Y US Treasury bonds decreased to 4.05%, while the yield on 10Y Chinese government bonds fell to 1.846%, indicating a trend of declining yields amid rising risk aversion [12][43] Commodity Tracking - As of October 10, WTI crude oil prices fell to $58.90 per barrel, a decrease of 3.3% from the previous week, while US crude oil production increased to 13.629 million barrels per day [25] - Gold prices reached a new high of $4,017.85 per ounce, driven by safe-haven demand amid ongoing US government shutdown and trade tensions [41][42] - Refined copper prices increased, with SHFE electrolytic copper settling at 86,285 yuan per ton, up 4.3% week-on-week, reflecting strong demand in construction and electrical sectors [51]