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短期政策扰动不改长期产业趋势,阶段性建议关注三季报行情
Xinda Securities·2025-10-12 14:34

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry is "Positive" [2]. Core Views - Short-term policy disruptions do not alter long-term industry trends, and there is a recommendation to focus on the Q3 earnings report [2][3]. - The recent performance of the pharmaceutical sector has been relatively weak, with a weekly return of -1.20% and a monthly return of -3.62% compared to the CSI 300 index [3][11]. - Key factors affecting the market include recent agreements in the U.S. regarding drug pricing, significant mergers and acquisitions by multinational corporations, and legislative actions impacting Chinese biotech companies [3][11]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector's weekly return was -1.20%, ranking 25th among 31 sub-industry indices [3][11]. - The Chinese pharmaceutical index has shown a monthly return of -3.62%, ranking 23rd among the same indices [11][21]. Policy Dynamics - On October 9, the National Medical Products Administration announced measures to expedite post-marketing research for traditional Chinese medicine injections [3][11]. - On October 11, the National Healthcare Security Administration issued a notice to strengthen monitoring of drug pricing issues in retail pharmacies [3][11]. Industry Outlook - Despite short-term policy impacts, the long-term trend for innovative drug companies remains positive, with a focus on the next 2-3 years as a critical period for growth [3][11]. - The CXO sector is recovering, and there is an expectation of sustained growth in performance, which may restore market confidence [3][11]. Q3 Earnings Expectations - Anticipated strong Q3 performance in various segments, including medical devices, traditional Chinese medicine, and raw material pharmaceutical companies [3][4]. - Specific companies to watch include United Imaging Healthcare, Kaili Medical, and others in the high-end medical device sector [4][12]. Sub-industry Performance - Among sub-industries, traditional Chinese medicine showed the highest weekly return of 1.51%, while medical services had a weekly return of -3.37% [11][28]. - The medical device sector is expected to stabilize or reverse in Q3, with several companies recommended for attention [4][12]. Valuation Metrics - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector is 30.88, which is above the historical average of 29.23 [15][18]. - The sector's valuation is at a historically low level, indicating potential investment opportunities [15][18].