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中美关税再度博弈,全球化产能布局企业价值凸显
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-10-12 14:30

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for companies like Yanjiang Co., New Australia Co., and Shenzhou International, highlighting their advantages in global capacity layout and supply chain [4][15]. Core Views - The textile and apparel sector has shown stronger performance than the market, with the SW textile and apparel index increasing by 1.6% from October 9 to October 10, outperforming the SW All A index by 2.0 percentage points [4][5]. - The report emphasizes the significance of companies with established global production capabilities, which can mitigate tariff impacts and capitalize on favorable market conditions [10][11]. - The recent surge in Australian wool prices is expected to enhance the growth potential of New Australia Co., which is positioned to benefit from this trend [13][14]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The textile and apparel sector outperformed the market, with the SW textile manufacturing index rising by 3.0%, exceeding the SW All A index by 3.5 percentage points [4][5]. - Retail sales in the apparel and textile categories reached 940 billion yuan from January to August, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.9% [26]. Trade and Tariff Impacts - The U.S. announced a 100% additional tariff on Chinese imports starting November 1, 2025, increasing uncertainty in the trade environment [10]. - Companies with global production layouts are expected to gain a competitive edge by avoiding tariff costs and seizing market share in more favorable overseas markets [10][11]. Company-Specific Insights - Yanjiang Co. has established overseas production in Egypt, the U.S., and India, allowing it to effectively respond to global trade changes [11]. - New Australia Co. has successfully launched production capacity in Vietnam, which is expected to meet U.S. demand, benefiting from rising wool prices [13][14]. - Nike's FY26Q1 performance showed a revenue of $11.7 billion, a 1% year-on-year increase, indicating a gradual recovery despite challenges in the Greater China region [12][16]. Market Trends - The report notes that the domestic demand is recovering, with innovative retail formats emerging in the sportswear sector, which is expected to drive growth [12]. - The Australian wool auction prices have reached record highs, with a significant increase of 41.8% year-on-year, indicating a strong upward trend in the wool market [13][14].