Investment Rating - The investment rating for the social services industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The domestic tourism during the National Day holiday showed stable performance with a year-on-year increase in tourist numbers but a decrease in per capita spending [16][22] - The global and Chinese vehicle toy markets reached sizes of 967 billion and 151 billion respectively in 2023, indicating a strong market potential for this category [30][36] - The craft beer market in China is projected to grow from 428 billion in 2022 to over 2000 billion by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18.5% [53][56] - The beauty sector on Douyin (TikTok) saw a year-on-year GMV increase of 19.69% in September, with the top 20 brands achieving a total GMV exceeding 30 billion [72] Summary by Sections Domestic Tourism - During the 2025 National Day holiday, domestic tourism reached 8.88 billion person-times, a year-on-year increase of 1.6%, with total tourism revenue of 809 billion, also up by 1% [16][17] - The average spending per person decreased by 0.6% to 911 yuan [16] - Cross-regional travel volume increased by 6.2% year-on-year, indicating strong long-distance travel intentions among residents [18][22] Vehicle Toys - The vehicle toy market is the second largest toy category, with a global market size of 967 billion and a Chinese market size of 151 billion in 2023 [30][36] - The market share for vehicle toys is approximately 12.5% globally and 14.4% in China [30][36] - The sales of vehicle toys in the G12 countries are expected to grow by 3% in 2024, continuing a five-year trend of positive growth [30] Craft Beer - The craft beer market in China is expected to grow significantly, with the number of craft beer outlets reaching 16,600 by mid-2025, a 28% increase from the previous year [59][65] - The market is driven by a shift towards premium experiences, with the younger generation contributing significantly to sales [53][56] - The penetration rate of craft beer in China is still below 5%, compared to 13.2% in the US, indicating substantial growth potential [55][56] Beauty Sector - The beauty category on Douyin experienced a significant increase in GMV, with the top 20 brands capturing a market share of 17.6% [72] - Domestic brands are gaining traction, with over 50% of the GMV from the top 20 brands coming from local products [72] - The price distribution in the beauty market is becoming more balanced, with a notable increase in the share of affordable products [75]