格林大华期货早盘提示-20251013

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The sharp decline of the Sci - Tech Innovation 50 Index led to the adjustment of the two - market major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index finding strong support around the 3900 - point level [1][2] - The decline of the semiconductor equipment sector was due to the liquidity shock of the reduction in the margin collateral conversion rate, which did not affect the long - term optimism of semiconductor self - controllability [2] - The new tariff shock is likely to hit the bottom in the first half of the week, or even on Monday [2] - The US's restriction on Chinese chips and China's counter - control of rare earths have changed the offensive - defensive situation in the Sino - US AI competition, and the interruption of US AI evolution may cause a catastrophic decline in US stocks [2] - The impact of the current situation on the Chinese stock market will be much smaller than that in April, and the Shanghai Composite Index is expected to have strong support around the 3800 - point level [2] - The semiconductor self - controllable and substitution fields are expected to become hotspots, while the overseas computing power chain will face negative impacts [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Conditions - Affected by the sharp decline of the Sci - Tech Innovation 50 Index, the two - market major indices adjusted. The trading volume of the two markets was 2.51 trillion yuan, showing a slight contraction. The CSI 300 Index closed at 4616 points, down 92 points or - 1.97%; the SSE 50 Index closed at 2974 points, down 45 points or - 1.51%; the CSI 500 Index closed at 7398 points, down 150 points or - 2.00%; the CSI 1000 Index closed at 7533 points, down 114 points or - 1.49% [1] - Among industry and theme ETFs, those with the highest gains were building materials ETF, coal ETF, Belt and Road ETF, breeding ETF, and oil and gas resources ETF; those with the highest losses were lithium battery ETF, integrated circuit ETF, and Sci - Tech Innovation chip ETF. Among the two - market sector indices, those with the highest gains were ground military equipment, cement, coke processing, water services, and gas indices; those with the highest losses were battery, semiconductor, energy metals, home appliance parts, and photovoltaic equipment indices [1] - The net outflows of settled funds from stock index futures of the CSI 500, CSI 300, and CSI 1000 Indices were 4.8 billion, 1.4 billion, and 400 million yuan respectively [1] Important Information - China's export control is not a ban on exports. As long as the export applications are for civilian use and compliant, they can be approved. The US control list has over 3000 items, while China's export control list has only over 900 items [1] - The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued an announcement on governing price disorderly competition and maintaining a good market price order, and will conduct research and evaluation on the average industry cost [1] - For A - shares with a static price - earnings ratio of over 300 times or a negative value, and warrants, the conversion rate in margin trading is adjusted to 0% [1] - "Deep learning father" Hinton suggested that AI may have "subjective experience" and self - awareness that has not yet awakened [1] - The London spot silver price has a record - high premium over the New York futures price, and market liquidity is almost exhausted [1] - Deutsche Bank predicted that by 2030, Bitcoin and gold may jointly become important components of central bank reserve assets. Currently, the global central bank's US dollar reserve share has dropped to 41%, while the gold reserve has exceeded 36,000 tons [2] - Investors expect that after the Red Sea - Suez Canal resumes safe passage, the global supply chain efficiency will be restored, and the high container freight rates will decline. However, the insurance industry has chosen to stay put [2] - Global central bank governors will focus on discussing stock market bubbles and potential crash risks at the upcoming IMF and World Bank autumn annual meetings. IMF President Kristalina Georgieva has warned that current asset valuations are close to those during the Internet bubble 25 years ago [2] Market Logic - The adjustment of the two - market major indices was due to the sharp decline of the Sci - Tech Innovation 50 Index, and the Shanghai Composite Index found strong support around the 3900 - point level. The decline of the semiconductor equipment sector was due to the liquidity shock of the reduction in the margin collateral conversion rate, which did not affect the long - term optimism of semiconductor self - controllability [1][2] - The launch of the DeepSeek V3.2 - Exp efficient AI model by Goldman Sachs will greatly reduce the threshold for using AI technology, leading to an increase in demand for computing power infrastructure and related hardware [2] - According to the HSBC emerging market survey, investors' optimism has increased, and China has become the preferred market for stock investment. 100 surveyed institutions manage a total of $423 billion in emerging market assets [2] Future Market Outlook - Due to the liquidity shock of the reduction in the margin collateral conversion rate, the two - market major indices fell sharply on Friday. Affected by the US President's tariff remarks, US stocks tumbled on Friday night [2] - China's control of rare earths is a firm response to the US's large - scale restriction on mature - process semiconductor equipment materials. The interruption of US AI evolution may cause a catastrophic decline in US stocks [2] - The impact on the Chinese stock market will be much smaller than that in April, and the Shanghai Composite Index is expected to have strong support around the 3800 - point level [2] Trading Strategies - For stock index futures directional trading, the shock is likely to hit the bottom in the first half of the week, or even on Monday. Stock index futures long positions should be mainly configured with the CSI 300 Index [3] - For stock index option trading, the shock is likely to hit the bottom in the first half of the week, or even on Monday. Investors can choose to buy out - of - the - money long - term call options on the CSI 300 Index at the bottom [3]