铁矿石人民币结算比例加大，印证国内定价权强化

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is Neutral, maintained [8] Core Views - The recent agreement between China Mineral Resources Group and BHP to implement RMB settlement for iron ore spot trading indicates a strengthening of domestic pricing power for iron ore. This is expected to lead to a more reasonable profit distribution within the black industry chain as iron ore prices may decrease due to an increase in supply from new projects like West Simandou [2][6] - The steel industry is currently experiencing a "weak reality, strong expectations" scenario, with a significant drop in apparent consumption due to holiday-related workday discrepancies. However, recent government announcements regarding price regulation and safety inspections may catalyze improvements in the industry's profitability [4][5] Summary by Sections Iron Ore Pricing Power - The proportion of iron ore settled in RMB is increasing, reflecting a strengthening of domestic pricing power. China’s annual iron ore trade exceeds $1.2 trillion, with about 80% settled in USD. The concentration of procurement power among state-owned enterprises is expected to enhance negotiation capabilities [5][6] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Apparent consumption of steel has decreased significantly, with a year-on-year drop of 21.14% and a month-on-month drop of 21.55%. Steel inventory has accumulated, indicating an oversupply situation [5] - Daily average pig iron production has slightly decreased to 2.4154 million tons, with total steel production showing a year-on-year decline of 0.16% and a month-on-month decline of 0.66% [5] Market Expectations - The steel market is currently characterized by strong expectations despite weak realities. Recent government measures aimed at regulating prices and ensuring safety in production may lead to a more favorable environment for profitability in the steel sector [4][5] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on four main investment lines: 1. Companies benefiting from the release of new capacities in iron and coke, such as Nanjing Steel and Baosteel [25] 2. Companies with low market value relative to their earnings, like New Steel and Fangda Special Steel [26] 3. Mergers and acquisitions in the context of state-owned enterprise reforms [26] 4. High-quality processing leaders and resource companies, particularly in the context of macroeconomic recovery expectations [26]