特朗普关税表态软化，必和必拓首次接受人民币结算

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes various sectors including finance and commodities, influenced by factors such as trade frictions, geopolitical events, and supply - demand dynamics. Trade frictions between the US and China, especially Trump's tariff statements, have a significant impact on market risk preferences, asset prices, and supply - demand relationships in different industries. Geopolitical events like the situation in the Middle East also affect relevant markets. Each sector has its own unique supply - demand characteristics and price trends, and investment strategies vary accordingly [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Trump plans to impose an additional 100% tariff on Chinese goods and strict export controls on software, which makes the gold price rise and increases market uncertainty. The short - term gold price is expected to be strong, but there are also factors such as profit - taking and liquidity shocks [12][13]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump's softened stance on tariffs reduces the risk of the US - China trade war, and the market risk preference rebounds. The short - term US dollar index is expected to fluctuate [14][15][16]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The intensification of tariff disturbances and the uncertainty of Sino - US relations lead to a decline in market risk preference. It is necessary to closely monitor the progress of subsequent negotiations. If the two sides' attitudes ease, it may be a good buying opportunity [17][18][19]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The escalation of Sino - US trade frictions puts pressure on the short - term risk preference of A - shares. It is recommended to reduce positions and wait for the progress of Sino - US relations [20][21][22]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducts 4090 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations. If the new regulations on fund fees are not considered, the treasury bond futures are expected to gradually strengthen. After the implementation of the new regulations, there may be opportunities to buy at low prices [23][24][25]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metal (Steam Coal) - Coastal power groups release procurement demand for imported steam coal in November, but the cost of traders is high. The short - term price rebound cannot change the seasonal weakness of coal prices from October to November [26][27]. 3.2.2 Black Metal (Iron Ore) - BHP accepts RMB settlement for iron ore trade. Although there is short - term support, the pressure on the demand side should be noted due to the weakening terminal demand [28]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The export volume of Malaysian palm oil from October 1 - 10 increased. Due to the new tariff statement by Trump, the oil market is expected to open lower this week. After the market stabilizes, long positions can be considered [29][30]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Domestic sugar production and sales data show that the destocking of old sugar slows down. The short - term upward momentum of Zhengzhou sugar is restricted, but the downside space is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate [34][35]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - Affected by weather and Sino - US trade frictions, the picking progress of Xinjiang cotton slows down, and the upper space of Zhengzhou cotton is limited in the short term. It is necessary to pay attention to the acquisition of new cotton and Sino - US relations [39][40]. 3.2.6 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The inventory of steel products increases during the holiday, and the actual pressure on finished products exists. The steel price is expected to continue the weak and volatile pattern in the near future. It is recommended to operate lightly and short on rebounds [43][44]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The proportion of drought - affected areas in US soybean production areas increases, and the sowing progress of Brazilian soybeans is good. The Sino - US trade war escalates, and the futures price is expected to show a pattern of strong domestic and weak foreign. It is necessary to pay attention to Sino - US relations and the situation of Brazilian new crops [45][46][48]. 3.2.8 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The price of new - season corn is weak. The corn market will enter the stage of production - area pricing. It is recommended to hold short positions and not enter long positions prematurely [50][51]. 3.2.9 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The inventory of corn starch enterprises increases. The spot rice - flour price difference is expected to shrink in the long - term, and the futures price difference may fluctuate at a low level [52]. 3.2.10 Agricultural Products (Jujube) - Jujube is in the transition period between old and new production seasons. The market will focus on the speculation of the opening price, and it is necessary to pay attention to the price game and acquisition progress in the production area [55]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - The resources of some copper mines increase. The short - term copper price is under pressure, but the medium - term expectation is good. It is recommended to buy on dips and wait and see for arbitrage [56][58][59]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Ford delays purchasing lithium metal. The short - term price of lithium carbonate is supported, but the long - term supply is expected to increase. It is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to the reverse spread [60][61]. 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The discount of LME lead increases, and the domestic social inventory of lead decreases. The short - term price of Shanghai lead may fluctuate upward. It is recommended to buy on dips and pay attention to delivery risks [62][63]. 3.2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc inventory decreases, and the 0 - 3 spread strengthens. The short - term zinc price is expected to fluctuate widely. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and pay attention to positive spreads for arbitrage [64][65]. 3.2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - GCL Technology obtains capital injection. The spot price of polysilicon may be stable. It is recommended to try long positions lightly and pay attention to the reverse spread [66][70]. 3.2.16 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - An industrial silicon project in Angola is put into operation. The fundamental contradiction of industrial silicon is not obvious. It is recommended to go long on dips with caution [71][72]. 3.2.17 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Indonesia adjusts the RKAB approval system. The global nickel inventory increases, but the nickel price has support at the bottom. It is recommended to go long at low prices at the beginning of the week [73][75][76]. 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The EU carbon price rises slightly. The investment fund's long position increases. The carbon price is expected to fluctuate strongly [77][79]. 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The number of US oil rigs decreases. The short - term oil price may be greatly affected by macro factors [80][81]. 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (PX) - The PX price falls. The short - term PX price is expected to adjust weakly [82][84]. 3.2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong rises locally. It is necessary to be cautious when bottom - fishing [85][87]. 3.2.22 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - The PTA spot price moves down. The short - term PTA price is expected to adjust weakly [88][90]. 3.2.23 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp is stable. The pulp market is expected to fluctuate weakly [91][92]. 3.2.24 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC powder price is sorted out narrowly. It is necessary to pay attention to macro changes [93]. 3.2.25 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The bottle chip factory reduces production. The supply - demand contradiction may accumulate in the fourth quarter, and the processing fee is under pressure [95]. 3.2.26 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash price is stable. It is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to supply disturbances [96][98]. 3.2.27 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The float glass price is stable. It is recommended to pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity of going long on glass 2601 and short on soda ash 2601 [99][100]. 3.2.28 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - China will charge additional fees for US ships. The container freight rate index fluctuates. It is recommended to trade with a volatile mindset and pay attention to long and short opportunities [101][104].