Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Nanhua Futures Urea Industry Weekly Report - Export Bottom - Seeking [1] - Report Date: October 12, 2025 [1] Group 2: Core Contradiction and Strategy Recommendation Core Contradiction - Urea's fundamental valuation is low. Without further adjustment to export policies, urea will continue to accumulate inventory in the fourth quarter. The industry's internal drive is weak in the short - term [2]. - Domestic mainstream regional quotes have dropped significantly by 30 - 70 yuan/ton, with North China's mainstream quotes ranging from 1,470 to 1,520 yuan/ton. The downstream compound fertilizer terminal's large - scale提货 did not start as expected during the holiday due to heavy rainfall in major grain - producing areas, which hindered autumn harvest and sowing, leading to weak downstream fertilizer demand and continuous price decline [2]. - The 01 - 05 spread is in a reverse arbitrage situation as the export expectation for the 01 contract has disappeared. The 01 contract still has a premium due to the autumn fertilizer expectation [5]. Trading - Type Strategy Recommendation - Trend Judgment: Urea is expected to fluctuate weakly [10]. - Price Range: UR2601 is expected to trade between 1,550 and 1,750 yuan/ton [11]. - Strategy Recommendation: Short positions are recommended to be established on rallies above 1,750 yuan/ton; reverse arbitrage is recommended for the 1 - 5 spread when it is above - 10 [11]. - Basis Strategy: Contracts 11, 12, and 01 have a weak unilateral trend. Attention should be paid to when the pre - National Day price - cut order - taking volume increases. Contracts 02, 03, 04, and 05 are strong contracts with peak - season demand expectations [12]. - Spread Strategy: The upper pressure for the 01 contract is 1,710 - 1,720 yuan/ton, and the static support below is 1,550 - 1,620 yuan/ton with dynamic fluctuations. It is recommended to short the 01 contract on rallies; reverse arbitrage for the 1 - 5 spread is recommended on rallies [12]. - Hedging Arbitrage Strategy: None [13] Group 3: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Focus Events This Week's Important Information - Positive Information: India announced a new round of urea import tenders on October 1, with the opening date on October 15 and the latest shipping date on December 10. The fourth quarter is the winter storage period for the fertilizer industry, and the relatively low price may attract spontaneous reserves [14]. - Negative Information: The daily output of the urea industry has been above 190,000 tons for a long time this year, and in some periods, it exceeded 200,000 tons. Even when the daily output dropped to around 182,000 tons in late August and early September, it was difficult to relieve the inventory pressure. The continuous price decline has led to a lack of market confidence, and the market in September was still sluggish. Without the support of export and macro - sentiment, the market fundamentals have been tepid, resulting in a decline in downstream procurement enthusiasm [15] Next Week's Important Events to Follow - On October 9, the Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs announced export controls on relevant rare - earth items. On October 10 (US Eastern Time), the US announced a 100% tariff increase on China in response to China's export controls on rare - earth items and export controls on all key software. Attention should be paid to new developments in Sino - US relations next week [16] Group 4: Disk Interpretation Price - Volume and Fund Interpretation - The domestic urea daily output fluctuated slightly between 195,000 and 201,000 tons around the holiday. With the shutdown of factories in Shanxi, the Northwest, and Inner Mongolia, the daily output dropped to around 195,000 tons, but the domestic trade supply - demand contradiction persists. After the holiday, the total inventory of urea enterprises was around 1.4 million tons, a significant increase from before the holiday. Some urea factories had poor pre - holiday pre - orders, and new orders are urgently needed after the holiday [17]. - In the demand side, continuous rainfall in major agricultural provinces such as Shandong and Henan has postponed agricultural demand. In addition, large - scale shutdowns of regional compound fertilizer factories and the diminishing impact of previous Indian tenders and export speculations have led to cautious replenishment of rigid demand and weak downstream stocking willingness [18]. - The weak domestic demand is the current main contradiction. It is expected that the increase in exports cannot make up for the weakening of domestic demand. Both compound fertilizer and industrial demand are weak, and the price drive is also limited. Therefore, the medium - term trend is under pressure, and the 1 - 5 spread of urea is in a reverse arbitrage pattern [19] Industry Hedging Recommendation - Urea Price Range Forecast: The price range for urea is predicted to be 1,650 - 1,950 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 27.16% and a historical percentile of 62.1% over three years [24]. - Urea Hedging Strategy Table: - Inventory Management: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short urea futures to lock in profits and cover production costs according to their inventory. They can also buy put options to prevent large price drops and sell call options to reduce capital costs. The recommended short - selling ratio for UR2601 is 25% in the range of 1,800 - 1,950 yuan/ton, and the ratio for buying put options is 50%, and the ratio for selling call options (UR2601C1950) is 45 - 60 [24]. - Procurement Management: For enterprises with low procurement inventory and aiming to purchase based on orders, they can buy urea futures at the current stage to lock in procurement costs in advance. They can also sell put options to collect premiums and lock in the purchase price if the urea price drops. The recommended buying ratio for UR2601 is 50% in the range of 1,650 - 1,750 yuan/ton, and the ratio for selling put options (UR2601P1650) is 75% [24] Group 5: Valuation and Profit Analysis Upstream Profit Tracking of the Industrial Chain - Analyzed the seasonal production costs of urea from fixed - bed, natural - gas, and water - coal - slurry gasification methods, as well as the seasonal production profits of urea from fixed - bed and water - coal - slurry gasification methods [25][27][30] Upstream Capacity Utilization Tracking - Tracked the seasonal daily output, weekly capacity utilization, weekly coal - based capacity utilization, and weekly natural - gas - based capacity utilization of urea [33][34] Upstream Inventory Tracking - Tracked the seasonal weekly enterprise inventory, weekly Guangdong and Guangxi inventory, and weekly port + inland inventory of Chinese urea [36][38][39] Downstream Price and Profit Tracking - Analyzed the seasonal capacity utilization, inventory, production cost, and production profit of compound fertilizer, as well as the market prices, capacity utilization, output, and production profit of melamine in different regions, and the market prices of different types of compound fertilizers in different regions [41][43][54] Spot Production and Sales Tracking - Tracked the seasonal average production and sales of urea, as well as the seasonal production and sales of urea in Shandong, Henan, Shanxi, Hebei, and East China [61][62][64]
南华期货尿素产业周报：出口寻底-20251013
Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-10-13 00:50