Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for methanol is "oscillating weakly" [2] Group 2: Core View of the Report - Methanol downstream shows a lackluster peak season, with both ports and production areas accumulating inventory after the holiday. The import volume in August was 175.98 million tons, a 59% increase month-on-month. Trump's sudden announcement of a 100% tariff on all Chinese exports to the US led to a sharp drop in the crude oil price. However, the rumored expansion of sanctions on Iranian shipping may disrupt future imports. In the short term, the methanol price is expected to oscillate weakly, with a reference range of 2260 - 2360 [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - On the Friday night session, the futures price of the main methanol contract rose by 19 yuan to 2314 yuan/ton, and the spot price in the mainstream East China region rose by 20 yuan to 2245 yuan/ton. Long positions increased by 4918 lots to 617,600 lots, while short positions decreased by 200 lots to 745,700 lots [2] 2. Important Information - Supply: The domestic methanol operating rate is 82.5%, a 2.6% month-on-month increase, and the overseas operating rate is 68.4%, a 7% month-on-month increase [2] - Inventory: The total inventory of Chinese methanol ports is 1.5432 million tons, an increase of 51,000 tons from the previous period. The inventory in East China increased by 47,800 tons, and that in South China increased by 3,200 tons. The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is 339,400 tons, an increase of 19,500 tons from the previous period, a 6.08% month-on-month increase [2] - Demand: The signing volume of northwest methanol enterprises is 18,700 tons, a decrease of 2,200 tons month-on-month. The order backlog of sample enterprises is 115,200 tons, a decrease of 157,800 tons from the previous period, a 57.79% month-on-month decrease. The olefin operating rate is 93.7%, a 4.4% month-on-month increase; the dimethyl ether operating rate is 4.9%, a 2.2% month-on-month decrease; the methyl chloride operating rate is 88.7%, a 1.1% month-on-month increase; the acetic acid operating rate is 82.9%, a 0.7% month-on-month decrease; the formaldehyde operating rate is 34.1%, a 10% month-on-month decrease; the MTBE operating rate is 64.1%, a 0.1% month-on-month decrease [2] 3. Market Logic - Methanol downstream shows a lackluster peak season, with inventory accumulation after the holiday. The sharp increase in August imports and Trump's tariff announcement have an impact on the market. The Iranian shipping sanctions may disrupt future imports, and the short - term methanol price is expected to oscillate weakly [2] 4. Trading Strategy - In the short term, the strategy is mainly short - selling at high levels [2]
格林大华期货早盘提示：甲醇-20251013
Ge Lin Qi Huo·2025-10-13 00:51