电解铝期货品种周报-20251013

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The aluminum price may first decline and then rebound in the remaining days of October. The SHFE Aluminum 2511 contract may approach the level of around 19,800, with a high - level resistance at 21,300, showing a high - level wide - range oscillation [5][11]. - In the fourth quarter, the supply of bauxite is expected to be generally sufficient, and the price will fluctuate between 70 - 75 US dollars per ton. The supply of domestic ore is difficult to improve significantly. The alumina market may see some production cuts and maintenance due to falling prices. The growth of domestic electrolytic aluminum production is limited, and the export shows certain resilience [9]. - The start - up rates of various aluminum processing sectors have been slightly adjusted, with the start - up rate of recycled aluminum rising against the trend. The "Golden September and Silver October" is lackluster, and the short - term upward space for the start - up rate is restricted [22][23]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - Trend Judgment: The aluminum price may first decline and then rebound in the remaining days of October. The SHFE Aluminum 2511 contract may approach the level of around 19,800, with a high - level resistance at 21,300, showing a high - level wide - range oscillation. It is advisable to consider holding medium - term long positions below 20,000 [5]. 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: The support level of SHFE Aluminum 2511 in the coming week was about 20,500, and the resistance level was about 20,900, for short - term trading [7]. - This Week's Strategy Suggestion: It is recommended to wait and see. Spot enterprises for hedging are advised to maintain an appropriate inventory and consider replenishing inventory when the price is below 20,000 yuan [8]. 3.3 Overall View 3.3.1 Raw Material Market - Bauxite Market: In the fourth quarter, the supply of bauxite is expected to be generally sufficient, and the price will fluctuate between 70 - 75 US dollars per ton. The domestic mine governance policy will have a long - term constraint on domestic ore, and the supply is difficult to improve significantly in the fourth quarter [9]. - Alumina Market: As of October 10, the domestic alumina production capacity utilization rate is at a high level since 2022. With the continuous decline of alumina prices, some high - cost enterprises may have production cuts and maintenance [9]. 3.3.2 Production - As of September 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is approaching the policy ceiling, and the room for further production increase is limited. The net increase in production throughout the year is expected to be less than 500,000 tons [9]. 3.3.3 Supply and Demand - Demand: The start - up rates of various aluminum processing sectors have been slightly adjusted. The start - up rate of recycled aluminum has risen against the trend, while the start - up rates of other sectors have declined to varying degrees. The "Golden September and Silver October" is lackluster, and the short - term upward space for the start - up rate is restricted [10][22][23]. - Inventory: The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots has increased by about 10% compared with last week, and the inventory of aluminum rods has increased by about 24%. The LME aluminum inventory is likely to continue to accumulate [10][16]. 3.3.4 Profit - Alumina Profit: The current average full - cost of the Chinese alumina industry is about 2,860 yuan per ton, and the profit is about 70 yuan per ton [11]. - Electrolytic Aluminum Profit: The current average production cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 17,100 yuan per ton, and the theoretical profit is about 3,800 yuan per ton, at a relatively high level [11]. 3.3.5 Market Expectation - The additional 100% tariff and export control announced by Trump will cause metals to continue to decline at the beginning of next week to digest the negative impact of tariffs [11]. 3.4 Important Industry Link Price Changes - The prices of domestic bauxite are generally stable, while the prices of imported ores have declined. The price of alumina has continued to decline since mid - August, and it is difficult to change the situation before new capacity control measures are introduced. The price of electrolytic aluminum has risen slightly [12]. 3.5 Important Industry Link Inventory Changes - The inventory of domestic port bauxite has slightly declined, and the inventory of alumina has continued to accumulate. The social inventory of domestic electrolytic aluminum ingots has increased, and the LME aluminum inventory is likely to continue to accumulate [14][16]. 3.6 Supply and Demand Situation - In the first week of October, the start - up rates of various aluminum processing sectors have been slightly adjusted. The start - up rate of recycled aluminum has risen against the trend, while the start - up rates of other sectors have declined to varying degrees. The "Golden September and Silver October" is lackluster, and the short - term upward space for the start - up rate is restricted [22][23]. 3.7 Futures and Spot Structure - The current futures price structure of SHFE aluminum is weak [27]. 3.8 Spread Structure - The spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 this week is about - 2,140 yuan per ton. The current spread between primary aluminum and alloy is at a relatively low level in recent years, and has a moderately strong impact on electrolytic aluminum [34][35]. 3.9 Market Capital Situation - LME Aluminum: The net long position has continued to rise slightly. Since June, both the long and short camps have increased their positions, and the overall market is still relatively strong [37]. - SHFE Electrolytic Aluminum: The net long position of the main contract has increased slightly compared with before the holiday. The net long position of funds with a financial speculation background has rebounded, while the funds with a background of mid - and downstream enterprises are in a stalemate between long and short. The main funds are slightly bullish, but the market is volatile [39].