塑料PP每日早盘观察-20251013

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The prices of L plastic and PP polypropylene markets are generally weak, with fluctuations affected by factors such as supply - demand, cost, and policy. For example, factors like new capacity production, changes in production capacity utilization, and tariff policies all impact the market trends of L and PP [1][5][8]. - The global plastic additive market is on an upward track, with an expected compound annual growth rate of 3.2% from 2024 to 2029, which is related to the output growth of terminal plastic consumption fields and policy regulations [6]. - Various policies and events, such as China's export control of rare earths, US - China tariff disputes, and China's petrochemical industry policies, have certain impacts on the plastic and polypropylene markets [1][6][11]. Summary by Directory Market Situation - L Plastic: The prices of L2601 contracts and LLDPE in different regions have shown a downward trend in most cases. For example, on October 13, the L2601 contract closed at 7004 points, down 33 points or 0.47%, and the mainstream price of domestic LLDPE was 7000 - 7680 yuan/ton, with prices in different regions falling by 10 - 70 yuan/ton [1]. - PP Polypropylene: The PP2601 contracts and domestic PP market prices have also generally declined. On October 13, the PP2601 contract closed at 6697 points, down 25 points or 0.37%, and the domestic PP market continued to weaken, with a decline of 20 - 50 yuan/ton [1]. Important Information - Trade Policy: On October 9, China legally imposed export controls on some rare earth items, while the US announced a 100% tariff increase on China and upgraded software controls on the 10th, leading to China's strong opposition [1]. - Industry Policy: Seven departments issued the "Work Plan for Stable Growth of the Petrochemical and Chemical Industry (2025 - 2026)", aiming to achieve an average annual growth of over 5% in industry added - value and promote high - end, green, and intelligent transformation [11]. - Market Forecast: From 2024 to 2029, the global plastic additive consumption is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 3.2%, driven by the output growth of terminal plastic consumption fields and policy regulations [6]. Logical Analysis - Capacity Utilization: As of last Friday, the new registered L contract warehouse receipts were 66 tons, with a total of 1.28 million tons; the PP contract had no new registered warehouse receipts, with a total of 1.40 million tons. The domestic PE capacity utilization rate increased to 83.9% for 4 consecutive weeks, a year - on - year increase of 4.2%, and the domestic PP capacity utilization rate increased to 77.7% for 3 consecutive weeks, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1% [2]. - Cost and Supply: Brent crude oil rose to $67.6 per barrel in September, a year - on - year decrease of 7.5%, which is negative for L. In August, domestic PE production increased to 2.827 million tons for 2 consecutive months, a year - on - year increase of 16.4%, which is negative for the L - PP spread [12]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral Trading: For the L main 01 contract, the strategies include holding long positions, waiting and seeing, or trying long positions at appropriate times. For the PP main 01 contract, strategies include holding short positions, trying short positions, or waiting and seeing [2][6][9]. - Arbitrage (Long - Short): Hold the L2601 - PP2601 spread and set stop - losses at appropriate positions, or wait and see [2][7][9]. - Options: Generally, the strategy is to wait and see [2][7][9].