软商品日报：美元走强打压下，白糖短暂调整-20251013

Report Industry Investment Rating - Sugar - Oscillation [1] - Cotton - Oscillation [1] Core Views - Sugar consumption has seasonally recovered due to the demand for summer cold drinks, and sugar imports have increased significantly recently due to the widening price gap between domestic and foreign markets. The impact of rainfall in Inner Mongolia on sugar beet production and the growth recovery of sugarcane after typhoon damage in Guangdong and Guangxi need further attention. The strategy is to mainly wait and see [1][3] - In August, cotton in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin was at high risk of high - temperature heat damage. The current commercial cotton inventory is decreasing, and the cotton price has bottom - support as the cotton textile peak season is approaching. The cotton growth period has suitable meteorological conditions, and the picking progress in Xinjiang is 24.9% as of October 6, with the price expected to range from 14,000 to 16,000 yuan. The strategy is to mainly wait and see [1][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Information - Nanning sugar spot price is 5,800.0 yuan, Kunming sugar spot price is 5,810.0 yuan, and Xinjiang cotton spot price is 14,650.0 yuan [1] Disk - US sugar closed at 16.1 with a change of 0.00%. US cotton closed at 63.77 with a change of 0.00% [1] Supply and Demand - Sugar: Driven by the demand for summer cold drinks, sugar consumption has seasonally recovered, and sugar imports have increased significantly recently due to the widening price gap between domestic and foreign markets [1] - Cotton: In August, the temperature in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin was high and precipitation was low, so cotton was at high risk of high - temperature heat damage. The current commercial cotton inventory is decreasing, and the cotton price has bottom - support as the cotton textile peak season is approaching [1] Inventory Warrants - Zhengzhou sugar warrants are 8,867.0 with a change of 0.00%; Zhengzhou cotton warrants are 2,942.0 with a change of 0.00% [2] Data Quick View Outer Market Quotes - US sugar was 16.1 on October 11 and 16.1 on October 12, with a change of 0.00%. US cotton was 63.77 on October 11 and 63.77 on October 12, with a change of 0.00% [4] Spot Prices - Nanning sugar was 5,800.0 on October 10 and 5,800.0 on October 11, with a change of 0.00%. Kunming sugar was 5,820.0 on October 10 and 5,810.0 on October 11, with a change of - 0.17%. Cotton Index 328 was 3,281 on October 10 and 3,280 on October 11, with a change of 0.12%. Xinjiang cotton was 14,750.0 on October 10 and 14,650.0 on October 11, with a change of - 0.68% [4] Spread Quick View - All spreads and basis for sugar and cotton contracts from October 11 to October 12 had a change of 0.00% [4] Import Prices - Cotton cotlookA was 76.05 on October 10 and 76.05 on October 11, with a change of 0.00% [4] Profit Space - Sugar import profit was 1,459.0 on October 10 and 1,459.0 on October 11, with a change of 0.00% [4] Options - For SR601C5500, the implied volatility was 0.0827, and the historical volatility of the futures underlying SR601 was 6.63. For SR601P5500, the implied volatility was 0.0789. For CF601C13400, the implied volatility was 0.0917, and the historical volatility of the futures underlying CF601 was 7.76. For CF601P13400, the implied volatility was 0.0935 [4] Inventory Warrants - Sugar warrants were 8,867.0 on October 10 and 8,867.0 on October 11, with a change of 0.00%. Cotton warrants were 2,942.0 on October 10 and 2,942.0 on October 11, with a change of 0.00% [4] Conclusion - Sugar: In August, rainfall in Inner Mongolia was excessive, which was not conducive to the sugar accumulation and harvesting of sugar beets, and the sugar factory start - up time was postponed. The impact on sugar beet sugar production needs further tracking and evaluation. In late September and early October, sugarcane in major producing areas such as Guangdong and Guangxi was affected by typhoons, and the post - disaster growth recovery needs continuous attention [3] - Cotton: The meteorological conditions during the cotton growth period were suitable, and the yield and quality in some areas were higher than expected. As of October 6, the cotton picking progress in Xinjiang was 24.9%, 0.9 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The opening price of seed cotton was flat to slightly lower year - on - year, and there is a downward risk after the centralized listing. The cotton price is expected to range from 14,000 to 16,000 yuan [3] Strategy Suggestion - Wait and see mainly [3]