五矿期货农产品早报：农产品早报2025-10-13-20251013

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Soybean/Meal: In the medium - term, with high domestic soybean inventory and expected global supply surplus, the general strategy is to sell on rallies. In the short - term, due to tariff issues, it will mainly trade in a range [2][3]. - Oils and Fats: Medium - term, there is support for oils and fats. Before inventory accumulates and demand shows negative feedback, a mid - term strategy of buying on dips is recommended. Short - term, due to trade war concerns, it's advisable to wait and see [5][6]. - Sugar: With expected increases in production in major northern hemisphere countries and high production in Brazil's central - south region, it is recommended to short on rallies in the fourth quarter [9][10]. - Cotton: Given weak fundamentals and macro - negative impacts, short - term cotton prices are likely to decline [12][13]. - Eggs: In the short - term, a bearish view on near - term contracts is appropriate. In the medium - term, there may be a rebound during the stocking period. In the long - term, sell on rallies [15][16]. - Pigs: In the fourth quarter, there is large supply pressure. For near - term contracts, reduce short positions. After spot prices stabilize, consider a 13 - positive spread strategy. For far - term contracts, maintain a reverse spread strategy [18][19]. 3. Summary by Category Soybean/Meal - Market Information: Last Friday, CBOT soybeans fell due to Sino - US trade concerns. Domestic soybean meal prices rose over the weekend. MYSTEEL predicts this week's domestic soybean crushing volume to be 216.74 million tons. Import soybean costs face both support and pressure [2]. - Strategy: Medium - term, sell on rallies; short - term, trade in a range [2][3]. Oils and Fats - Market Information: Malaysia's palm oil exports from October 1 - 10 increased compared to the same period last month. The 2026 average price of crude palm oil is expected to be between 3900 - 4100 Malaysian ringgit per ton. Last Friday, domestic oils and fats prices fell [5]. - Strategy: Medium - term, buy on dips; short - term, wait and see [5][6]. Sugar - Market Information: Last Friday, Zhengzhou sugar futures fell. Brazilian sugar production data shows an increase in the first half of September. The number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports increased [8][9]. - Strategy: Short on rallies in the fourth quarter [10]. Cotton - Market Information: Last Friday, Zhengzhou cotton futures rose first and then fell. Trump announced additional tariffs on Chinese imports, and China responded with counter - measures [12]. - Strategy: Short - term, expect price decline [13]. Eggs - Market Information: Egg prices were stable over the weekend. Supply is large, and consumption is weak. Egg prices are expected to be weak in early October and may rebound slightly later [15]. - Strategy: Short - term, bearish on near - term contracts; medium - term, expect a rebound; long - term, sell on rallies [16]. Pigs - Market Information: Pig prices continued to fall over the weekend, with some areas stabilizing. Supply is abundant, and some farmers are selling pigs actively [18]. - Strategy: Reduce short positions on near - term contracts; consider a 13 - positive spread after spot prices stabilize; maintain a reverse spread for far - term contracts [19].