Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In 2026, the decline in soda ash prices is mainly due to the continuous intensification of supply - demand imbalance. In the short term, the oversupply pattern is difficult to reverse, and prices may continue to oscillate weakly [3][4]. - For A - shares, the three major indices opened lower and closed lower, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing with a small negative line. The market is expected to continue to oscillate at a high level [8][9]. - For gold, the external gold price rose and then fell, and Shanghai gold adjusted accordingly. This adjustment is still benign, and it is advisable to buy on dips [12]. - For iron ore, the supply may be affected by long - term agreements and accidents in the short term, but there is an expectation of loose supply in the long term. The terminal situation has not improved after the holiday, and high - selling and low - buying operations are recommended [15][16]. - For glass, the daily melting volume has little change, and inventory has accumulated during the holiday. The subsequent driving forces mainly lie in policy - end stimulus and anti - involution policies. Attention should be paid to the support near the integer mark [21]. - For soybean oil, affected by the strong rebound of external oils and fats during the holiday, the domestic oil market will have a catch - up increase after the holiday. Soybean oil is expected to oscillate and rebound following palm oil [23]. - For pulp, the price in Shandong remains stable. The export volume of major pulp - exporting countries has increased, and domestic port inventory remains high. It is recommended to short on rebounds [26]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soda Ash - Supply: The 2.8 - million - ton natural soda ash production capacity of Yuangxing Energy, the 700,000 - ton combined soda ash production capacity of Yuntu Yingcheng Xindu have been gradually released, and the 2 - million - ton production capacity of Hubei Jinjiang New Materials will be put into operation at the end of the year. The total new production capacity in the year reaches 5.5 million tons, and the total production capacity is approaching 47 million tons, with a year - on - year output increase of over 10%. As of October 9, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers is 1.6598 million tons, a 3.74% increase from before the holiday [3]. - Demand: The demand for heavy soda ash is dragged down by the continuous decline in the demand for flat glass and the limited increase in soda ash consumption of photovoltaic glass. Although the demand for light soda ash is growing, the growth rate of its diverse downstream industries is limited, and the annual supply - demand gap of 4.5 million tons in the domestic market is difficult to digest [3]. A - shares - Market performance: The three major A - share indices opened lower and closed lower, with the Shanghai Composite Index almost turning positive in the morning but being suppressed by the continuous decline of the ChiNext and STAR Markets [9]. - Influencing factors: China's implementation of export controls on relevant items such as rare earths, super - hard materials, and lithium batteries, and the continuous farce of the US government shutdown [8]. - Market forecast: The market is expected to continue to oscillate at a high level [8]. Gold - Market performance: The external gold price rose and then fell, and Shanghai gold adjusted accordingly [12]. - Operation suggestion: This adjustment is still benign. As long as it does not break below the 5 - day moving average, it is considered strong, and it is advisable to buy on dips [12]. Iron Ore - Supply: In the short term, supply is affected by long - term agreement negotiations and accidents. In the long term, with the commissioning of the Simandou project, there is an expectation of loose supply [16]. - Demand: The terminal situation has not improved after the holiday, and molten iron production may decline periodically [15]. - Operation suggestion: The price is in a high - level wide - range oscillation range, and high - selling and low - buying operations are recommended [15]. Glass - Supply and inventory: The daily melting volume has little change, and inventory has accumulated during the holiday [21]. - Driving forces: The subsequent driving forces mainly lie in policy - end stimulus and anti - involution policies [21]. - Technical analysis: The price rose and then fell today, and attention should be paid to the support near the integer mark [21]. Soybean Oil - Market influence: Affected by the strong rebound of external oils and fats during the holiday, the domestic oil market will have a catch - up increase after the holiday [23]. - Market trend: Indonesia's B50 plan will squeeze the export share of palm oil, increasing the premium of palm oil over soybean oil. The demand substitution effect between oils and fats is strong, and soybean oil is expected to oscillate and rebound following palm oil [23]. Pulp - Market performance: The pulp price in Shandong remains stable. The export volume of Brazilian pulp in September increased by 10% year - on - year, and domestic port inventory remains high. The "Golden September" peak season is not prosperous, and the pulp price oscillated and declined [26]. - Operation suggestion: It is recommended to short on rebounds [26].
金信期货日刊：纯碱价格下跌：供需过剩主导的必然-20251013
Jin Xin Qi Huo·2025-10-13 01:35