高盛：中国关税和新兴市场人工智能贸易

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook on the market, highlighting high volatility and potential risks that could disrupt current optimism [1][3]. Core Insights - The S&P index has declined approximately 1.25%, with CTA no longer acting as buyers, indicating heightened market risk [1][3]. - The non-profitable tech sector has seen a parabolic rise driven by retail investors and a $100 billion digital impact, suggesting signs of market exuberance [1][5]. - Emerging market stocks have performed well over the past six months, reflecting diversified growth across the region rather than being solely driven by China [1][11]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The implied volatility remains high despite a rising stock market, as investors continue to buy put options [4]. - Quality stocks have outperformed the S&P 500 index, with a basket of short-term stocks exceeding the index by approximately 100 basis points on a given day [4]. Sector Analysis - The non-profitable tech sector's recent surge is attributed to active retail investors and discussions around significant digital investments [5]. - AI-related trades are gaining attention, with concerns about private credit risks permeating various sectors [5]. Gold Market - Gold prices have surpassed $4,000, reflecting themes of inflation and government spending, establishing itself as a de facto safe-haven asset [8]. - Central bank demand is driving gold prices, indicating a non-speculative boom in the market [8]. Emerging Markets - Emerging market stocks have shown strong performance, with 70% of the broad index maintaining positive monthly returns throughout the year [11]. - The performance is not solely led by China but includes significant contributions from regions like Europe, the Middle East, and Latin America [11]. AI Development - AI technology is penetrating emerging market companies, particularly in China and North Asia, although their investment portfolios lag behind U.S. counterparts [14]. - The current state of AI in emerging markets is still in early development, with a notably lower allocation in global funds compared to benchmarks [14].