LPG：短期偏弱运行，丙烯：需求转弱，短期弱势运行

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - LPG is expected to run weakly in the short - term, and propylene will also run weakly due to weakening demand [1]. - The trend strength of both LPG and propylene is - 1, indicating a bearish view [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Prices: For LPG futures, PG2511 closed at 4,070 yesterday with a - 0.05% daily increase and 4,083 in the night session with a 0.32% increase; PG2512 closed at 3,992 yesterday with a 0.35% daily increase and 3,996 in the night session with a 0.10% increase. For propylene futures, PL2601 closed at 6,205 yesterday with a - 0.08% daily increase and 6,173 in the night session with a - 0.52% increase; PL2602 closed at 6,249 yesterday with a - 0.05% daily increase and 6,220 in the night session with a - 0.46% increase [1]. - Position and Trading Volume: PG2511 had 57,966 trades yesterday, a decrease of 12,408 from the previous day, and a position of 63,060, a decrease of 3,804. PG2512 had 21,362 trades yesterday, a decrease of 10,618, and a position of 59,590, an increase of 5,365. PL2601 had 5,404 trades yesterday, an increase of 810, and a position of 12,673, a decrease of 43. PL2602 had 2,358 trades yesterday, an increase of 2,330, and a position of 2,538, an increase of 1,927 [1]. - Spreads: The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and PG11 contract was 480 yesterday (478 the day before); the spread between Guangzhou imported gas and PG11 contract was 500 yesterday (508 the day before); the spread between Shandong propylene and PL01 contract was 265 yesterday (285 the day before); the spread between East China propylene and PL01 contract was 85 yesterday (80 the day before); the spread between South China propylene and PL01 contract was - 30 yesterday (- 35 the day before) [1]. - Industry Chain Data: The PDH operating rate this week was 70.9%, down from 72.5% last week; the MTBE operating rate was 64.1%, down from 64.5%; the alkylation operating rate was 45.1%, down from 47.4% [1]. 3.2 Market Information - CP Paper Goods: On October 10, 2025, the November CP paper - goods price for propane was 478 dollars/ton, up 8 dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the price for butane was 474 dollars/ton, up 6 dollars/ton. The December CP paper - goods price for propane was 486 dollars/ton, up 7 dollars/ton from the previous trading day [5]. - PDH Device Maintenance Plans: Multiple domestic PDH plants have maintenance plans, such as Henan Huasong New Material Technology Co., Ltd. starting maintenance on May 12, 2023, with an undetermined end - date, and its PDH device has a capacity of 15. There are also many other companies with different maintenance start and end times [6]. - LPG Factory Device Maintenance Plans: Many domestic LPG factories have maintenance plans. For example, Zhenghe Petrochemical in Shandong started full - plant maintenance on May 14, 2024, with a normal output of 400 and a loss of 400, and the end - date is undetermined [6].