格林大华期货早盘提示：国债-20251013

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a bullish short - term rating for treasury bond futures [1][2] 2. Core View of the Report - The consumption market during the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holidays showed stable performance, with the daily average sales revenue of consumption - related industries increasing by 4.5% year - on - year. The decline in the year - on - year property sales volume of 30 large - and medium - sized cities in early October widened. The US stock market fell sharply due to the US president's tariff threat, and market risk appetite declined significantly. Treasury bond futures are expected to open higher on Monday, with a short - term bullish outlook [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Review - On Friday, most of the main contracts of treasury bond futures opened slightly higher or flat, and trended downwards throughout the day. By the close, the 30 - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2512 fell 0.49%, the 10 - year T2512 fell 0.06%, the 5 - year TF2512 fell 0.09%, and the 2 - year TS2512 fell 0.05% [1] Important Information - Open market: The central bank conducted 40.9 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on Friday, with 60 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 19.1 billion yuan [1] - Money market: On October 11, the inter - bank market opened normally. The overnight interest rate in the inter - bank money market decreased slightly compared to the previous trading day. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.31% for the whole day (1.32% in the previous trading day), and the weighted average of DR007 was 1.39% for the whole day (1.42% in the previous trading day) [1] - Cash bond market: Affected by the news, the closing yields of inter - bank treasury bonds on October 11 generally decreased compared to the previous trading day. The yield to maturity of 2 - year treasury bonds decreased by 1.94 basis points to 1.48%, the 5 - year decreased by 2.56 basis points to 1.58%, the 10 - year decreased by 2.54 basis points to 1.82%, and the 30 - year decreased by 5.01 basis points to 2.23% [1] - Consumption data: The latest VAT invoice data from the State Taxation Administration showed that the daily average sales revenue of consumption - related industries during the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holidays increased by 4.5% year - on - year. Commodity consumption and service consumption increased by 3.9% and 7.6% respectively year - on - year [1] - Shipping policy: On October 10, the Ministry of Transport issued an announcement on charging special port fees for US ships [1] - US economic data: The preliminary value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in the US in October was 55 (expected 54.2, previous value 55.1). The one - year inflation rate expectation in the US in October was 4.6% (expected 4.7%, previous value 4.70%); the five - to ten - year inflation rate expectation was 3.7% (expected 3.7%, previous value 3.70%) [1] - Trade policy: On October 10, the US announced a 100% tariff increase on China. China's Ministry of Commerce responded, urging the US to correct its wrong practices and maintain the stability, health, and sustainable development of Sino - US economic and trade relations [1] Market Logic - The consumption market during the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holidays showed stable performance, similar to the cumulative year - on - year growth of 4.6% in social retail sales from January to August and higher than the 3.4% year - on - year growth in August. The decline in the year - on - year property sales volume of 30 large - and medium - sized cities in early October widened. The US stock market fell sharply due to the US president's tariff threat, and market risk appetite declined significantly. Treasury bond futures are expected to open higher on Monday, with a short - term bullish outlook [1][2] Trading Strategy - Traders are advised to conduct band operations [2]