Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-10-13 02:13Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the banking industry for the third quarter of 2025, anticipating steady performance and a return to value [1]. Core Insights - The report predicts that listed banks will show "slight revenue growth slowdown, with profits maintaining a positive growth trend," with a focus on stability. It estimates a 0.6% year-on-year revenue growth for the first nine months of 2025 and a 0.8% growth in net profit attributable to shareholders [2][3]. - The banking sector's profitability is supported by three core factors: stabilization of net interest income, recovery of non-interest income from low levels, and stable asset quality ensuring sustainable profits. Regulatory support for the health of bank balance sheets is also highlighted [2][3]. - The report emphasizes that while non-interest income may face pressure due to rising bond market rates, the overall impact on cumulative revenue is expected to be limited due to favorable year-on-year comparisons [2][3]. - The report suggests that banks can expect improvements in net interest income, driven by a significant decline in funding costs, which will help offset the downward pressure on asset pricing [3]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Forecast - For the first nine months of 2025, state-owned banks are expected to see a revenue growth of 1.3%, while joint-stock banks may experience a revenue decline of 2.4%. In contrast, city commercial banks are projected to achieve a revenue growth of 5.8% and a net profit growth of 8.2% [2][4]. - The report provides detailed forecasts for various banks, indicating a mixed performance across the sector, with some banks like Agricultural Bank and Bank of Communications showing positive trends while others like Ping An Bank are expected to decline [4]. Non-Interest Income and Market Conditions - The report notes that while non-interest income may decline by 10-20% in the third quarter, cumulative figures for the year are expected to show positive growth due to a favorable comparison base [2][3]. - The report highlights that banks are likely to benefit from improved market sentiment and a recovery in fee income, which had previously faced downward pressure [2][3]. Credit Growth and Asset Quality - Credit growth is expected to stabilize, with a focus on corporate lending over retail, as banks prepare for future lending needs. The report indicates that as of August, the year-on-year growth rate of RMB loans was approximately 6.6% [2][3]. - The report anticipates that the non-performing loan (NPL) ratio will remain stable, with a projected NPL ratio of 1.22% for the third quarter of 2025, and a slight decrease in the provision coverage ratio to 238% [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the banking sector's dividend yield has returned to an attractive range, with stable profit growth being a cornerstone for value recovery. It recommends focusing on leading banks and quality city commercial banks for investment opportunities [3].