双碳跟踪:CCER方法学加速出台,累计单吨成交均价约86.4元
Changjiang Securities·2025-10-13 02:13

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the environmental industry [13] Core Insights - Since 2024, China has accelerated the establishment of a national carbon market regulatory framework, with significant progress in the CCER (China Certified Emission Reduction) methodology since October 2023. As of September 2025, the cumulative transaction volume of CCER is approximately 2.43 billion yuan, with an average transaction price of 86.41 yuan per ton [2][6][8] Summary by Sections Carbon Emission Control System - The carbon emission control system is gradually improving, with a unified national carbon market being constructed. The market includes both the national carbon quota trading market (CEA) and the voluntary greenhouse gas emission reduction trading market (CCER), which operate independently but are interconnected through a quota offset mechanism [6][19][21] CCER Methodology Expansion - The CCER methodology has been continuously expanded, with four batches of methodologies released since October 2023. The first batch includes forestry carbon sinks and offshore wind power, while subsequent batches cover various energy-saving and emission reduction projects. As of September 2025, 29 voluntary emission reduction projects have been registered, with an expected annual reduction of 10.438 million tons [7][26][27] CCER Market Performance - The average transaction price of CCER is currently higher than that of CEA, reflecting a temporary supply-demand imbalance due to strict project approvals and limited issuance. The report anticipates that as the issuance of CCER increases and market mechanisms mature, prices will gradually return to a reasonable relationship. The average transaction price of CCER from January to September 2025 is 86.41 yuan per ton, while CEA's average is 69.29 yuan per ton [8][34] Benefits of Agricultural and Forestry Biomass Projects - The report highlights the potential benefits of agricultural and forestry biomass projects under the CCER framework. For instance, assuming a CCER price of 80 yuan per ton, companies like Changqing Group and China Everbright Green Environmental Protection could see significant revenue contributions from CCER sales, amounting to 139 million yuan and 384 million HKD, respectively [9][44][45] Investment Logic for CCER - The investment logic for CCER emphasizes the importance of additionality in projects, focusing on profitability compensation rather than mere emission reduction. Key areas of interest include carbon monitoring equipment and consulting services, as well as the acceleration of related industries such as biomass power generation and hydrogen energy [10][49]