Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Core Viewpoint - The expectation of tariff escalation suppresses demand, and lithium prices may face pressure [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - Futures Contracts: The closing price of the 2511 contract was 72,740 yuan, down 600 yuan from T - 1; the trading volume was 294,783 lots, down 66,310 lots; the open interest was 221,919 lots, down 7,103 lots. The closing price of the 2601 contract was 72,900 yuan, down 540 yuan from T - 1; the trading volume was 108,403 lots, down 26,276 lots; the open interest was 191,709 lots, up 8,305 lots [1] - Warehouse Receipts: The warehouse receipt volume was 42,669 lots, up 290 lots from T - 1 [1] - Basis: The basis of spot - 2511 was 810 yuan, up 600 yuan from T - 1; the basis of spot - 2601 was 650 yuan, up 540 yuan; the basis of 2511 - 2601 was - 160 yuan, down 60 yuan [1] - Raw Materials and Lithium Salts: The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 839 yuan, down 4 yuan from T - 1; the price of lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,810 yuan, down 25 yuan. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,550 yuan, unchanged from T - 1; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 71,300 yuan, unchanged [1] Macro and Industry News - Lithium Carbonate Price: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 73,453 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,550 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 71,300 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Mining Rights: Zangge Mining's subsidiary received the "Real Estate Certificate (Mining Right)" and "Mining License" for the Chaerhan Salt Lake Potash and Magnesium Mine, with an area of 724.3493 square kilometers and mining depths from 2680 meters to 2658 meters. The main ore is potash salt, and associated ores include salt, magnesium salt, lithium ore, and boron ore [3] - Lithium Purchase Delay: Ford postponed its plan to purchase lithium from Liontown and cancelled the plan to apply for electric vehicle tax credits. Due to the decline in electric vehicle sales, Ford will not obtain any lithium resources from Liontown's Kathleen Valley project in 2027 and 2028, and the future delivery volume will be halved to 256,250 tons [3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is - 1, indicating a weak bearish outlook [3]
碳酸锂：关税升级预期抑制需求，锂价或承压
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-10-13 02:05