关税战再起，市场影响几何？

Group 1 - The report highlights the re-emergence of the trade war between the US and China, with the US imposing a 100% tariff on Chinese products starting November 1, 2025, and implementing export controls on key software [2][7] - The ongoing trade conflict is seen as a continuation of the trade barriers established since April 2025, which have not been resolved despite multiple rounds of negotiations [2][8][11] - The potential for a spiral escalation in trade tensions is noted, with both sides likely to continue retaliatory measures, impacting various sectors beyond trade [2][12] Group 2 - Short-term market impacts are expected to be manageable, as the A-share market rebounded quickly after previous trade war shocks, indicating investor resilience and experience [2][13] - In the medium term, structural investment opportunities are anticipated, particularly in sectors benefiting from import substitution and potential domestic policy easing [2][13] - Investment recommendations include increasing allocations to defensive sectors such as utilities and banks in the short term, while focusing on strategic technology sectors like nuclear fusion, AI, and semiconductor manufacturing for medium-term opportunities [3][13]