宝城期货原油早报-2025-10-13：品种晨会纪要-20251013

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the domestic crude oil futures 2512 contract is "Weak" [1][5] 2. Report's Core View - Due to systemic risks, the domestic crude oil futures 2512 contract is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend. The contract closed 4.27% lower at 448.5 yuan/barrel last Friday, and it may continue this trend on Monday [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price and Trend - Short - term view: The short - term trend of the crude oil 2512 contract is weak [1] - Medium - term view: The medium - term trend of the crude oil 2512 contract is weak and volatile [1][5] - Intraday view: The intraday trend of the crude oil 2512 contract is a decline [1][5] Driving Factors - Geopolitical and economic factors: Trump restarted the tariff war targeting China, causing the peripheral financial markets to weaken. The US government is in a shutdown due to the lack of consensus between the two parties. These factors contribute to systemic risks [5] - Supply factors: Eight OPEC+ oil - producing countries decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November, increasing the supply pressure in the oil market [5] - Geopolitical situation: The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has shown signs of easing. The "war premium" that previously supported oil prices has diminished [5]