铝周报：美联储10月降息概率高，沪铝或震荡偏强运行-20251013

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed is highly likely to cut interest rates in October, and the Shanghai aluminum price may show a mainly oscillating and strengthening trend. The price fluctuation of aluminum is narrowing, with limited arbitrage opportunities. It is recommended to mainly observe the option contracts [2][3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Review - Last week, the price of the main contract AL2511 of Shanghai aluminum futures showed an upward trend, ranging from around 20,830 yuan/ton to a maximum of about 21,205 yuan/ton [7] 2. Macroeconomic Aspect - The Fed's decision to cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points in September received support from the majority of committee members. The only dissenting vote was from new Fed Governor Milan, who advocated a larger 50 - basis - point rate cut. The market's expectation of a rate cut in October remains firm, with a probability of nearly 95% [2][10][11] 3. Supply and Demand Situation - As of August 2025, domestic bauxite imports decreased compared to the previous month but remained at a high level in the past five years. As of September 2025, the domestic alumina in - production capacity continued to increase, and the inventory was at a low level. The in - production capacity of electrolytic aluminum remained high, and the operating rate continued to rise. The output of aluminum products decreased year - on - year and month - on - month, while the output of aluminum alloy remained high [2][13][32] 4. Inventory Situation - As of October 10, 2025, the electrolytic aluminum inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased slightly compared to the previous week, and the LME aluminum inventory also increased slightly. The domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased significantly on October 9, 2025. The overall inventory level of Shanghai aluminum was at a low level in recent years [2][22][32] 5. Macroeconomic and Fundamental Analysis - The Fed is likely to cut interest rates in October. The bauxite imports remain high, the alumina in - production capacity continues to rise, and the inventory is low. The electrolytic aluminum in - production capacity remains high, and the operating rate continues to climb. The output of aluminum products has decreased, while the output of aluminum alloy remains high. The Shanghai aluminum inventory has increased slightly and is at a low level in recent years [2][32] 6. Future Outlook - The aluminum price is expected to show a mainly oscillating and strengthening trend. The price fluctuation is narrowing, with limited arbitrage opportunities. It is recommended to mainly observe the option contracts [3][33]