螺纹钢：弱现实叠加预期转弱，钢价或小幅回调

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Both rebar and hot-rolled coil are facing a combination of weak current situations and weakening expectations, and steel prices may experience a slight correction [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking 3.1.1 Futures Data - Rebar futures (RB2601) closed at 3,103 yuan/ton yesterday, up 16 yuan/ton or 0.52%. The trading volume was 1,039,362 lots, and the open interest was 1,926,153 lots, an increase of 18,024 lots [1] - Hot-rolled coil futures (HC2601) closed at 3,285 yuan/ton yesterday, up 12 yuan/ton or 0.37%. The trading volume was 414,002 lots, and the open interest was 1,397,651 lots, an increase of 23,065 lots [1] 3.1.2 Spot Price Data - Rebar spot prices in Hangzhou, Shanghai, Beijing, and Guangzhou were 3,300 yuan/ton, 3,250 yuan/ton, 3,180 yuan/ton, and 3,310 yuan/ton respectively. The prices in Hangzhou, Shanghai, and Beijing increased by 10 yuan/ton, while the price in Guangzhou remained unchanged [1] - Hot-rolled coil spot prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Tianjin, and Guangzhou were 3,350 yuan/ton, 3,380 yuan/ton, 3,290 yuan/ton, and 3,320 yuan/ton respectively. The prices in Shanghai and Tianjin remained unchanged, while the price in Hangzhou increased by 10 yuan/ton [1] - The price of Tangshan steel billet was 2,970 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [1] 3.1.3 Basis and Spread Data - The basis of RB2601 was 147 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton. The basis of HC2601 was 65 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton [1] - The spread between RB2601 and RB2605 was -56 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton. The spread between HC2601 and HC2605 was 110 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan/ton [1] - The spread between HC2601 and RB2601 was 182 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton. The spread between HC2605 and RB2605 was 133 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton [1] - The spot spread between hot-rolled coil and rebar was 3 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On October 10, 2025, the US announced export controls on rare earths and other related items from China, imposing a 100% tariff and implementing export controls on all key software [1][3] - In August 2025, China exported 9.51 million tons of steel, a 3.3% month-on-month decrease. The export average price was 698.0 US dollars/ton, basically unchanged from the previous month. From January to August, China's cumulative steel exports reached 77.49 million tons, a 9.8% year-on-year increase, and the export average price was 699.1 US dollars/ton, a 10.1% year-on-year decrease [3] - In August 2025, China imported 50,000 tons of steel, a 10.4% month-on-month increase, the first increase since May this year. The import average price was 1,653.0 US dollars/ton, a 8.4% month-on-month decrease. From January to August, China's cumulative steel imports reached 397,700 tons, a 14.1% year-on-year decrease, and the import average price was 1,697.7 US dollars/ton, a 1.5% year-on-year increase [3] - According to the weekly data from SteelUnion on October 8, in terms of production, rebar production decreased by 36,200 tons, hot-rolled coil production decreased by 14,000 tons, and the total production of the five major varieties decreased by 37,600 tons. In terms of total inventory, rebar inventory increased by 239,600 tons, hot-rolled coil inventory increased by 299,200 tons, and the total inventory of the five major varieties increased by 692,300 tons. In terms of apparent demand, rebar apparent demand decreased by 950,600 tons, hot-rolled coil apparent demand decreased by 336,400 tons, and the total apparent demand of the five major varieties decreased by 1.6937 million tons [3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of rebar is 0, and the trend intensity of hot-rolled coil is 0. The trend intensity ranges from -2 to 2, with -2 indicating the most bearish and 2 indicating the most bullish [3]