中泰期货晨会纪要-20251013

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market is affected by multiple factors such as trade frictions, government shutdowns, and central bank policies, showing complex and volatile trends. Different sectors and varieties have different trends and investment strategies due to their own supply - demand relationships and external impacts [10][14][15] - In the face of uncertainties such as trade conflicts and policy changes, investors need to closely monitor market dynamics, pay attention to key events and data, and make investment decisions based on risk - return assessments [14][15][40] Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro Information - The US stock market experienced a "Black Friday" due to factors such as intensified trade war risks and the continuous shutdown of the US federal government. China implemented export controls on some medium - heavy rare earth related items and countermeasures against US restrictions on the shipbuilding industry. The US added multiple Chinese entities to the export control "Entity List" [10] - Multiple brokerages adjusted the margin conversion ratios of some stocks. The US Federal Reserve officials showed a dovish attitude towards interest rate cuts. The US consumer confidence index declined slightly, and the inflation expectation decreased slightly. The retail sales of the Chinese passenger car market increased in September, with a significant increase in new energy vehicles [11][12] 2. Macro Finance 2.1 Stock Index Futures - Pay attention to the trading volume of broad - based ETFs, the value of long - term options, and the reverse arbitrage trend of stock index futures. A - shares fell on Friday, and the night - session was affected by trade expectations. The market is concerned about the impact of trade conflicts again, and there may be short - term fluctuations if the 100% tariff is implemented [14] 2.2 Treasury Bond Futures - Adopt an oscillating approach and focus on the odds of short - term bonds. The capital market is balanced and loose, and the bond market is expected to oscillate. Be cautious of short - term fluctuations caused by trade conflicts [15] 3. Black 3.1 Iron and Steel and Ore - From a macro perspective, the escalation of Sino - US trade frictions is negative for the market. The peak season is approaching, but the real demand for steel products has limited improvement, and the market may oscillate or have an off - peak peak season. The demand for building materials is weak, while the demand for coils is acceptable. Steel mills' profits are at a low level, and raw material costs are oscillating [17] 3.2 Coking Coal and Coke - The prices of coking coal and coke may continue to oscillate weakly in the short term. The supply is gradually recovering, and the market focus returns to the supply - demand side. The supply of coking coal may face resistance in the medium - term, and the short - term demand support is weak [19] 3.3 Ferroalloys - Manganese silicon is expected to have a weak consolidation. The inventory of manganese ore in Tianjin Port has increased, and the weekly output of manganese silicon in Yunnan may decrease in the future. The market may open lower on Monday, and it is recommended to partially close short positions if the decline exceeds 3% [19][20] 3.4 Soda Ash and Glass - For soda ash, adopt a short - selling approach when the price is high; for glass, adopt a wait - and - see approach. The soda ash industry has a supply - demand contradiction, and the glass industry needs to pay attention to the improvement of peak - season demand and downstream procurement [21] 4. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials 4.1 Aluminum and Alumina - For aluminum, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term and consider going long if the situation eases after a significant decline. For alumina, it is recommended to short - sell when the price is high as the supply is excessive [23] 4.2 Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate is expected to oscillate. The supply is increasing, and the short - term inventory reduction supports the price. The impact of Sino - US trade relations on short - term prices needs attention [24] 4.3 Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon is in a range - bound oscillation. The key factors for supply - demand are the resumption progress of large manufacturers in Xinjiang and the production suspension plan of downstream polysilicon manufacturers [25][26] 4.4 Polysilicon - The spot price is firm, and the decline space of polysilicon futures is limited. Pay attention to policy progress and adopt a wait - and - see approach [27] 5. Agricultural Products 5.1 Cotton - Adopt a short - selling approach when the price is high. The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weak. The international cotton market is affected by factors such as trade tariffs and the US government shutdown, and the supply is increasing [29] 5.2 Sugar - Adopt a short - selling approach. The global sugar market is expected to have a surplus, and the domestic sugar market is under pressure from supply and inventory [31] 5.3 Eggs - It is recommended to gradually close short positions and wait and see. The supply - demand of eggs is loose, and the spot price is weak. The futures price is expected to repair the valuation, and the bottom - fishing needs to be cautious [33] 5.4 Apples - Apples are expected to oscillate. The listing of late - maturing Fuji apples is postponed due to rain. The acquisition prices in different regions vary, and the impact of continuous rainfall on apple quality needs attention [35] 5.5 Corn - It is recommended to stay on the sidelines and sell out - of - the - money call options on the 01 contract. The new corn supply is increasing, and the price is under pressure [36] 5.6 Jujubes - The short - term market may be strong, and it is recommended to wait and see. The market price is stable, and the opening price is expected to be high [37] 5.7 Pigs - It is recommended to hold short positions in the near - term contracts. The supply - demand pattern after the double festivals is supply - strong and demand - weak, and the spot price is expected to continue to be weak [38] 6. Energy and Chemicals 6.1 Crude Oil - It is recommended to hold existing short positions. The supply of crude oil is increasing, the demand is weakening, and the price is gradually moving down. The price may be affected by the Sino - US tariff war and may have a short - term rebound [40] 6.2 Fuel Oil - The price of fuel oil will follow the oil price. The supply - demand structure is loose, and the price is affected by geopolitical and macro - economic factors [41] 6.3 Plastics - Polyolefins are expected to oscillate weakly. The supply pressure is large, and the demand is relatively weak [42] 6.4 Rubber - Rubber may continue to decline due to sentiment, but it is necessary to be cautious when chasing short positions. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is weak [43] 6.5 Methanol - Methanol is expected to oscillate weakly. The port inventory is high, and the supply - demand pattern is weak. It is necessary to pay attention to the port de - stocking process [44] 6.6 Caustic Soda - The price of caustic soda may be weak due to the Sino - US tariff war. The spot and futures markets show different trends affected by various factors [45] 6.7 Asphalt - Asphalt follows the oil price. The current is the seasonal demand peak, and the inventory reduction speed in October needs attention [46] 6.8 Offset Printing Paper - Offset printing paper is expected to oscillate. The supply may be excessive, but the low valuation provides support. It is recommended to go long or sell put options near the production cost [47] 6.9 Polyester Industry Chain - The polyester industry chain is expected to decline in the short term, but it is not recommended to chase short positions if there is a large gap - down opening [48] 6.10 Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - It is recommended to maintain a short - selling view in the long term. The supply of LPG is abundant, and the demand is difficult to strengthen beyond expectations [50] 6.11 Pulp - The pulp market is under pressure, but there is support. It is recommended to observe port de - stocking and spot transactions and consider going long in the 01 contract if the spot price is stable [51] 6.12 Logs - Logs are expected to oscillate. The cost is supported, and it is recommended to go long lightly if the spot price holds firm and downstream orders improve [52] 6.13 Urea - The price of urea is expected to be weak. It is recommended to close short positions at an appropriate time [53] 6.14 Synthetic Rubber - Synthetic rubber may continue to decline due to sentiment, but it is necessary to be cautious when chasing short positions. The supply of raw materials is stable, and the short - term support comes from device maintenance [54]