宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025年10月13日）-20251013

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The iron ore market is expected to face downward pressure in the short - term. The iron ore 2601 contract is expected to be weak in the short - term, fluctuate in the medium - term, and bearish for the day. Attention should be paid to the support level of MA5. The core logic is that tariff disturbances have affected the market, causing the ore price to fall under pressure [1]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Variety View Reference - For the iron ore 2601 contract, the short - term view is weak oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the intraday view is bearish. The reference suggestion is to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is that tariff disturbances have affected the market, leading to a decline in ore prices under pressure [1]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - Trump's statement on imposing tariffs on Chinese goods on social media has weakened market sentiment and put pressure on risk funds. The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has changed little, with stable steel mill production and high terminal consumption of ore, which supports the ore price. However, contradictions in the steel market are accumulating, and the positive effect will weaken. The arrival of iron ore at domestic ports during the holiday was high, overseas ore shipments were active at high prices, and domestic ore supply will resume after the holiday, increasing supply pressure. In general, the ore demand is okay, supporting the price, but supply remains high, demand resilience is weakening, the fundamentals of the ore market are expected to deteriorate, and the market is weakening due to tariff disturbances, so the ore price will fall from a high level in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel [2].