宝城期货国债期货早报-20251013

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term and medium - term outlook for TL2512 is "sideways", and the intraday view is "sideways with a slight upward bias", with an overall view of "sideways" due to the existence of long - term interest rate cut expectations but a low possibility of short - term comprehensive interest rate cuts [1]. - For the TL, T, TF, and TS varieties, the intraday view is "sideways with a slight upward bias", the medium - term view is "sideways", and the overall view is "sideways". In the short term, the upward momentum and downward space of treasury bond futures are limited, and they will mainly undergo bottom - side consolidation [5]. Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2512 variety, the short - term, medium - term, and overall views are "sideways", and the intraday view is "sideways with a slight upward bias". The core logic is that long - term interest rate cut expectations remain, but the possibility of short - term comprehensive interest rate cuts is low [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view of TL, T, TF, and TS is "sideways with a slight upward bias", and the medium - term view is "sideways", with an overall view of "sideways". Last Friday, treasury bond futures oscillated and slightly pulled back. In the short term, the strong risk appetite in the stock market suppresses bond - buying demand, the necessity of short - term comprehensive interest rate cuts is low, and the recent rebound of treasury bond futures limits their short - term upward momentum. However, due to the need for a moderately loose monetary environment on the macro - economic demand side, the treasury bond futures have strong support at the bottom in the long run. The tariff threat from Trump on Friday night increased market risk - aversion sentiment, which is short - term positive for treasury bond futures [5].