国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：绿色金融与新能源-20251013

Report Overview - Date: October 13, 2025 - Publisher: Guotai Junan Futures - Industry: Green Finance and New Energy 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Nickel: Macro sentiment has turned bearish, leading to low - level oscillations in nickel prices [2][4]. - Stainless Steel: The combination of macro factors and market reality exerts downward pressure, but the cost floor limits the downside potential [2][4]. - Lithium Carbonate: Anticipated tariff hikes are suppressing demand, which may cause lithium prices to face downward pressure [2][7]. - Industrial Silicon: Upstream production is resuming, suggesting a strategy of short - selling on price rallies [2][10]. - Polysilicon: With a weekend meeting held, it is advisable to look for buying opportunities on price dips [2][11]. 3. Summary by Commodity Nickel and Stainless Steel - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 122,180 yuan, down 2,300 yuan from the previous day. The stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,780 yuan, down 80 yuan. There were also detailed data on trading volume, spot prices, and spreads [4]. - Macro and Industry News: Indonesia's forestry working group took over a nickel mine due to license violations, potentially affecting monthly production by about 600 metal tons. China suspended a non - official subsidy for imported copper and nickel from Russia. Indonesia imposed sanctions on 190 mining companies and issued new regulations on mining business plans [4][5][6]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity for both nickel and stainless steel is - 1, indicating a bearish outlook [6]. Lithium Carbonate - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the 2511 contract was 72,740 yuan, down 600 yuan. There were also data on trading volume, open interest, and various price spreads in the lithium carbonate market [7]. - Macro and Industry News: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price increased slightly. Tibetan Mining received new mining rights. Ford postponed lithium purchases and adjusted its electric - vehicle tax - credit plan [8][9]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity for lithium carbonate is - 1, suggesting a bearish view [9]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Fundamental Data: The Si2511 contract closed at 8,685 yuan/ton. There were detailed data on trading volume, open interest, price spreads, spot prices, and profit margins for industrial silicon and polysilicon [11]. - Macro and Industry News: The US will impose a 68.45% tariff on metal silicon imports from Angola starting October 1 [11][13]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity for industrial silicon is - 1 (bearish), and for polysilicon, it is 0 (neutral) [13].