申万期货品种策略日报：油脂油料-20251013

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - For protein meals, the night - session of soybean and rapeseed meal weakened. The USDA quarterly inventory report had a neutral impact on the market. There is a high expectation of a reduction in US soybean yield in the upcoming USDA report due to poor weather since late August. However, the postponement of the October USDA report restrains market trading, and domestic supply sufficiency suppresses the market, so it is expected that the Dalian soybean meal will continue to fluctuate within a range [2] - For oils, the night - session of oils was weak. The MPOB report showed that the inventory accumulation was higher than expected, which may put short - term pressure on the oil market. But in the long - term, as Southeast Asian production areas enter the production - reduction season and there is support from international biodiesel for consumption demand, the price center of oils is expected to move up [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Domestic Futures Market - Prices and Changes: The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures for soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts were 8100, 9126, 9921, 2930, 2457, and 8844 respectively. The price changes were 14, 72, - 75, 2, - 35, and 26, and the percentage changes were 0.17%, 0.80%, - 3.15%, 0.07%, - 1.40%, and 0.29% respectively [1] - Spreads and Ratios: The current values of spreads such as Y9 - 1, P9 - 1, OI9 - 1, Y - P09, OI - Y09, OI - P09, M9 - 1, RM9 - 1, M - RM09, M/RM09, Y/M09, Y - M09 are - 320, - 538, - 380, - 808, 1761, 953, - 74, 3, 458, 1.19, 2.72, 4924 respectively, with corresponding previous values [1] International Futures Market - Prices and Changes: The previous day's closing prices of international futures for BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, CBOT soybean oil, and CBOT soybean meal were 4299 (ringgit/ton), 1009 (cents/bushel), 50 (cents/pound), and 276 (dollars/ton) respectively. The price changes were - 84, - 4, - 0, - 1, and the percentage changes were - 1.92%, - 0.40%, - 0.14%, - 0.40% respectively [1] Domestic Spot Market - Prices and Changes: The current spot prices of domestic products such as Tianjin first - grade soybean oil, Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil, Zhangjiagang 24° palm oil, etc. are 8310, 8430, 9130 respectively, with corresponding percentage changes [1] - Basis and Spreads: The current spot basis and spreads of various products are provided, such as the basis of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil is 210, and the spread between Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil is - 560 [1] Import and Profit - The current values of import profit for near - month Malaysian palm oil, near - month US Gulf soybeans, etc. are - 417, - 28 respectively, with corresponding previous values [1] Warehouse Receipts - The current values of warehouse receipts for soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts are 25534, 1500, 8057, 39055, 9245, 0 respectively, with corresponding previous values [1] Industry Information - As of October 5, soybean harvesting was 39% complete, higher than the same period in previous years. Analysts expect the net export sales volume of US 2025/26 soybeans in the week ending October 2 to be between 600,000 and 1.6 million tons [2] - From October 1 - 10, Malaysia's palm oil exports were 495,415 tons, a 19.37% increase compared to the same period last month [2]