锌月报：宏微扰动增多，锌价弱势震荡-20251013

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Fed restarted the interest - rate cut cycle, which is favorable for risk assets, but the US government shutdown and the resurgence of China - US tariff conflicts have increased macro uncertainties. China's economy faces certain pressures, and new policy - based financial instruments are expected to strengthen economic growth this year, with the possibility of further policy stimulus still existing [3][88]. - The divergence between domestic and foreign zinc processing fees has intensified. The inflection point of domestic ore processing fees has emerged, and there is still room for adjustment as smelters' winter storage demand rises. The continuous decline in the price of by - product sulfuric acid has compressed smelter profit margins, reducing production enthusiasm. Although refined zinc supply will recover in October, the room for further growth is limited. The current Shanghai - London price ratio is near the critical point for zinc ingot exports, and the opening of the export window is expected to relieve the domestic surplus pressure [3][88]. - The peak consumption season is somewhat dull. The start - up rate of primary enterprises has improved month - on - month but is weaker than the same period. They maintain a just - in - time purchasing rhythm and lack the willingness to actively replenish inventories. In the terminal market, infrastructure has a marginal repair demand and may become an important support for demand in the future; the consumption of automobiles and household appliances remains resilient, the performance in the wind and solar sectors is divergent, the export of galvanized sheets faces weakening pressure, and the real estate sector continues to be weak [3][88]. - Overall, there are more overseas macro disturbances, and market sentiment may fluctuate. The macro trend is less clear. Fundamentally, the situation remains strong overseas and weak domestically. The resumption of smelter production has promoted supply recovery, and demand lacks significant highlights, leading to an increase in supply - demand pressure. However, the expectation of zinc ingot exports is strengthening, which will relieve the domestic surplus pressure, while the liquidity risk of LME zinc will also decrease. These two forces will balance each other, and zinc prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [3][90]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Zinc Market Review - In September, the main contract price of SHFE zinc first rose and then declined, seeking support. At the beginning of the month, supported by the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation and the peak consumption season, zinc prices fluctuated strongly. After the Fed cut interest rates, the market sold on the news, and the strong US economic data supported the US dollar, causing zinc prices to fall to 21,825 yuan/ton, with a monthly decline of 1.42%. LME zinc rose first and then fell. In the first half of the month, it broke through $2,900/ton and reached a high of $3,003.5/ton. After the interest - rate cut and hawkish remarks from Powell, it corrected and closed at $2,956.5/ton, with a monthly increase of 5.06% [8]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Analysis 3.2.1 US Situation - The US economy is cooling but remains resilient. The Q2 real GDP grew by 2.08% year - on - year and 3.8% quarter - on - quarter. In August, retail sales increased by 4.8% year - on - year and 0.6% month - on - month. In September, the ISM manufacturing PMI was 49.1, but new orders declined. The non - manufacturing PMI was 50, with business activity falling below the boom - bust line. The ADP employment data in September decreased by 32,000, and inflation continued to rise slowly. In September, the Fed cut interest rates by 25bp to 4.0 - 4.25% [11][12]. - The US government shut down in late September, and Trump announced additional tariffs on China in October, which increased market uncertainties [13]. 3.2.2 Eurozone Situation - In September, the eurozone's manufacturing PMI fell to 49.5, while the services PMI rose to 51.4. Inflation rose slightly, and the unemployment rate dropped to 6.2% in August. The ECB kept interest rates unchanged in September, and its officials' statements were cautious [14]. 3.2.3 China's Situation - In August, most of China's economic indicators continued to decline. Exports, industrial production, consumption, and investment all showed different degrees of slowdown. The manufacturing PMI in September was 49.8%, and the non - manufacturing PMI fell to 50.0%. The consumption during the National Day holiday was structurally differentiated [16]. - Policy support is expected. The Politburo meeting in September decided to hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee, and new policy - based financial instruments worth 500 billion yuan are expected to boost infrastructure investment [17]. 3.3 Zinc Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 Zinc Ore Supply - Global zinc concentrate supply has recovered as expected. From January to July 2025, the cumulative output was 7.1994 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.02%. Overseas zinc concentrate output is expected to increase by about 550,000 tons this year, and domestic output is expected to increase by about 100,000 tons [30]. - The divergence between domestic and foreign processing fees has intensified. In October, the average domestic processing fee was 3,650 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 300 yuan/ton, while the average import processing fee was $87.51/dry ton, a month - on - month increase of $16.83/dry ton. In August 2025, 467,300 tons of zinc concentrate were imported, and from January to August, the cumulative import volume was 3.5027 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 43.06% [34][35]. 3.3.2 Refined Zinc Supply - Overseas smelters are operating at low loads, while China contributes to the increase in supply. From January to July 2025, global refined zinc output was 7.911 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.15%. Overseas output decreased by 4.7%, while China's output increased by 2.65% [41]. - From January to September 2025, the cumulative output of refined zinc was 5.0691 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.85%. In September, the output was 600,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.2%. It is expected that the output in October will increase by 3.77% to 622,700 tons. In August, 25,600 tons of refined zinc were imported, and from January to August, the cumulative import volume was 235,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.81%. The import window remains closed, and the export window may open [45][46]. 3.3.3 Refined Zinc Demand - Globally, from January to July 2025, refined zinc consumption was 7.843 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.12%. Overseas consumption increased by 1.33%, and domestic consumption increased by 2.96%. The supply surplus in the global zinc market was 72,000 tons, a significant reduction from the previous year [56]. - In the overseas market, the real estate and automotive sectors showed marginal improvement. In the US, new home sales in August reached an annualized rate of 800,000 units, and new car sales in August were 1.4913 million units. In the eurozone, the construction confidence index improved slightly [57]. - In September, the start - up rate of primary processing enterprises showed a slow recovery. In August, 1.0975 million tons of galvanized sheets were exported, and from January to August, the cumulative export volume was 9.2182 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.96% [60][62]. - In the traditional infrastructure sector, investment growth has declined, but there is a demand for recovery. In the real estate sector, investment and sales continue to be weak. In the automotive and household appliance sectors, production and sales are resilient. In the emerging consumption sector, the photovoltaic industry is expected to drive zinc consumption growth, and the wind power industry is also developing well [64][72][73]. 3.3.4 Global Visible Inventory - In September, LME zinc inventory continued to decline, reaching 38,200 tons at the end of the month. The LME 0 - 3 spot premium rose and then slightly declined to $55.98/ton. - In September, China's social inventory first increased and then decreased, reaching 141,400 tons at the end of the month. There is a strong expectation of inventory accumulation during the National Day holiday in early October, but inventory is expected to decline again after the holiday [87].