偏空因素主导，甲醇偏弱运行

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no relevant information provided in the report. Group 2: Report's Core View - The macro - factor has weakened due to the US tariff war and the federal government shutdown. The domestic methanol supply - demand fundamentals are weak. The methanol futures 2601 contract may maintain a weak and volatile trend [5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Market Review 1.1 Methanol Spot Price Slightly Decreased, and Basis Discount Narrowed - In the week of October 10, 2025, the mainstream spot price of methanol in East China was 2250 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton from before the holiday; in South China, it was 2215 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan/ton; in North China, it was 2215 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton. The basis discount between the East China spot price and the 2601 contract futures price narrowed to 55 yuan/ton [8]. 1.2 Bearish Factors Dominated, and Methanol Traded Weakly - The tariff war and the government shutdown led to a weakening of the macro - sentiment. The domestic methanol supply - demand fundamentals were also weak. The methanol futures 2601 contract rebounded but lacked upward momentum, with a bearish moving - average arrangement [16]. 2. Analysis of the Methanol Market Supply - Demand Situation 2.1 Domestic Methanol Operating Rate Slightly Increased, and Weekly Output Increased Significantly - After the holiday, with the resumption of previously - shut - down plants, the domestic methanol supply pressure increased. As of the week of October 10, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 80.38%, slightly up 0.87% week - on - week. The weekly output averaged 203.3 tons, up 16.03 tons week - on - week. The supply will remain loose in Q4 [18]. 2.2 More Overseas Methanol Ships Arrived at Ports, and Import Pressure Rose - In Q3, due to weak international demand and India's reduced imports, more methanol was shipped to China. In August 2025, China's methanol imports reached 175.98 tons, up 65.71 tons month - on - month. The high - supply situation of Iranian methanol will continue until the gas - restriction season in Q4 [20]. 2.3 Methanol Downstream Demand Slightly Improved, and Olefin Profits Slightly Declined - As of the week of October 10, 2025, the operating rates of formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, acetic acid, MTBE, and MTO/MTP showed different changes. The domestic olefin futures profit was - 146 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton week - on - week [24]. 2.4 Port Inventory Slightly Increased, and Inland Inventory Slightly Decreased - As of the week of October 10, 2025, the port methanol inventory in East and South China was 127.30 tons, up 0.49 tons week - on - week. As of the week of September 25, 2025, the inland inventory was 32 tons, down 2.05 tons week - on - week [35]. 2.5 The Profitability of Domestic Coal - to - Methanol Slightly Shrunk - As of the week of September 30, 2025, coal - to - methanol in Northwest, Shandong, and Inner Mongolia was profitable when calculated by manufacturing cost, but the profitability was lower than before [37]. 3. Conclusion - The macro - factor has weakened, and the domestic methanol supply is high with high import pressure and high port inventory. Although the downstream demand is improving, the olefin profit is poor. The methanol futures 2601 contract may maintain a weak and volatile trend [46].