原油周报：多重利空叠加，原油大幅回落-20251013

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The resurgence of the tariff war by President Trump and the ongoing shutdown of the US federal government have led to a significant decline of 4.27% in the domestic crude oil futures 2512 contract last Friday, closing at 448.5 yuan per barrel. It is expected that the contract will maintain a weak and volatile trend in the future [5]. - The continuous shutdown of the US federal government, the decision of 8 OPEC+ oil - producing countries to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November, and the easing of the Middle East geopolitical situation have all contributed to the weakening of support for oil prices. It is expected that domestic crude oil futures will maintain a weak and volatile trend [5]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Market Review 3.1.1 Spot Price Slightly Rises, Basis Discount Significantly Narrows - As of the week ending October 10, 2025, the spot price of crude oil produced in the Shengli Oilfield area was 63.53 US dollars per barrel, equivalent to 451.4 yuan per barrel, a slight increase of 0.6 yuan per barrel compared to before the holiday. The main 2511 contract of domestic crude oil futures closed at 461.9 yuan per barrel, a significant weekly decline of 17.8 yuan per barrel. The basis was 10.5 yuan per barrel, and the discount significantly narrowed [9]. 3.1.2 Multiple Negative Factors Lead to a Sharp Decline in Crude Oil - President Trump's tariff war and the US federal government shutdown led to a collective decline in the peripheral financial markets last Friday. The domestic crude oil futures 2512 contract closed 4.27% lower at 448.5 yuan per barrel. It is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend [13][14]. 3.2 Upgrading of Crude Oil Supply - Demand Surplus, Accelerating Production Increase 3.2.1 OPEC+ Accelerates Capacity Release, Intensifying Supply Surplus Expectations - Since April 2025, OPEC+ has shifted from a production - cut cycle to a production - increase cycle, with a cumulative production increase of 1.919 million barrels per day from April to August. In August 2025, OPEC member countries' crude oil production was 27.948 million barrels per day, a significant monthly increase of 478,000 barrels per day and a significant annual increase of 1.296 million barrels per day. It is expected that OPEC+ oil - producing countries will accelerate production increases, increasing supply pressure [21][22][23]. 3.2.2 Non - OPEC Oil - Producing Countries Maintain High - Level Production Capacity - As of the week ending October 3, 2025, the number of active oil drilling platforms in the US was 422, a slight weekly decrease of 2 and a decrease of 57 compared to the same period last year. The daily crude oil production was 13.629 million barrels, a significant weekly increase of 124,000 barrels per day and a significant annual increase of 429,000 barrels per day. However, the growth rate of US domestic crude oil production is expected to slow down [37]. 3.2.3 The Peak Season of Crude Oil Demand in the Northern Hemisphere is Coming to an End - After entering October, the peak season of oil demand in the Northern Hemisphere ends, demand weakens, and inventory accumulation pressure increases. Different energy institutions have different forecasts for the global crude oil market, but overall, there are concerns about supply - demand imbalances [41]. 3.2.4 A Significant Increase in US Crude Oil Inventories and a Slight Increase in Refinery Utilization Rate - As of the week ending October 3, 2025, US commercial crude oil inventories reached 420.3 million barrels, a significant weekly increase of 3.715 million barrels. The refinery utilization rate was 92.4%, a slight weekly increase of 1.0 percentage point [44]. 3.2.5 A Slight Increase in China's Crude Oil Imports in August 2025 - In August 2025, China's crude oil imports reached 49.492 million tons, a significant monthly increase of 2.288 million tons and a slight annual increase of 392,000 tons. However, China's crude oil processing and import consumption may be restricted by weak demand [48]. 3.3 Easing Signs in the Middle East Situation, but Risks Remain - During the National Day holiday, the Middle East geopolitical situation showed signs of easing, weakening the support for the crude oil market. The "war premium" has subsided, and the resumption of the oil export channel in the Iraqi Kurdish region has increased the global crude oil supply expectation, suppressing oil prices [59]. 3.4 Net Long Positions in the International Crude Oil Market Show Mixed Changes Week - on - Week - As of September 23, 2025, the average non - commercial net long position in WTI crude oil was 102,958 contracts, a significant weekly increase of 4,249 contracts. As of September 30, 2025, the average net long position of Brent crude oil futures funds was 202,480 contracts, a significant weekly decrease of 9,903 contracts [64]. 3.5 Conclusion - The ongoing shutdown of the US federal government, the production increase decision of 8 OPEC+ oil - producing countries, and the easing of the Middle East situation are expected to cause domestic crude oil futures to maintain a weak and volatile trend [68].