特朗普突发关税威胁，短线扰动股指

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For stock index futures, Trump's sudden tariff threat will disrupt the stock index in the short - term. Last week, each stock index rose first and then fell, with a slight decline. In the long - term, policy expectations and capital inflows support the stock index. The subsequent trend of the stock index depends on the game between policy expectation fermentation and profit - taking. Trump's tariff threat on Friday night led to a sharp drop in US stock indexes, bringing short - term pressure on the stock market, but the impact on A - shares is weaker than in early April [1][7][79]. - For ETF options and stock index options, maintain a bull spread in a low - volatility state. The implied volatility of options has declined to a low level. Since the probability of the stock index rising in the long - term is high, one can hold a bull spread or a ratio spread with a mild bullish view [2][80]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review 3.1.1 Stock Index Trends - Last week, each stock index rose first and then fell, with a slight decline. Due to the significant increase in stock valuations, the profit - taking intention of profitable funds increased. With policy benefits about to be implemented, the policy - driven effect will weaken. In the long - term, policy expectations and capital inflows support the stock index [7]. - The table shows the price changes of spot indexes. For example, the Shanghai Composite 50 Index closed at 2974.854, with a daily decline of 1.51% and a weekly decline of 0.47% [8]. 3.1.2 Option Price Trends - This week, the 50ETF had a weekly decline of 1.90%, closing at 3.045; the 300ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) had a weekly decline of 0.37%, closing at 4.604; etc. The report also provides the price changes and weekly fluctuations of various option underlying assets and the weekly price changes of the main contracts of each option variety [13][14][15]. 3.1.3 Stock Index Futures Basis and Monthly Spread - The basis of the four stock index futures varieties shows that IF and IH are at normal quantile levels, while IM and IC are in a state of significant far - month futures discounts. The inter - period spreads of IC and IM futures have increased, indicating a strong short - term risk preference for IC and IM in the market [19]. 3.2 Option Indicators 3.2.1 PCR Indicators - The report provides the trading volume PCR and open interest PCR of various options, such as the Shanghai Composite 50ETF option, with a trading volume PCR of 113.82 and an open interest PCR of 71.82 [31]. 3.2.2 Implied Volatility - The report provides the implied volatility of at - the - money options in October 2025 and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying assets for various options. For example, the implied volatility of the Shanghai Composite 50ETF option's at - the - money option in October 2025 is 16.72%, and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying asset is 15.73% [52]. 3.3 Conclusion - Similar to the core viewpoints, for stock index futures, Trump's tariff threat disrupts the stock index in the short - term, and the stock index will fluctuate widely in the short - term. For ETF options and stock index options, maintain a bull spread in a low - volatility state [79][80].