Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Macroeconomically, there is a risk of tariff escalation between China and the US, and global market risk - aversion drags down the sentiment of the domestic industrial products market. However, China's economic long - term trend of steady improvement remains unchanged, with the 9 - month manufacturing PMI approaching the boom - bust line, a significant rebound in industrial enterprise profit growth, and continuous support from expansionary fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies. The photovoltaic supply - side reform will be further deepened [3][49]. - On the supply side, the operating rate in Xinjiang has steadily risen to 70%, the output in Sichuan and Yunnan during the wet season is higher than the same period in previous years, and the new capacity investment in Gansu and Inner Mongolia has slowed down. The supply side shows a steady recovery, and social inventory fluctuates at a high level [3][49]. - On the demand side, polysilicon production is increasing, and the production plan for October is still rising month - on - month. Silicon wafer manufacturers' production plans are waiting for the implementation of the component export tax - rebate policy. Battery prices are rising, but new orders are shrinking. Component price increases are stagnant due to the slowdown in photovoltaic installations. Some leading enterprises have pre - arranged for the recycling of retired crystalline silicon components. In traditional industries, the operating rate of silicone has declined due to the incomplete recovery of terminal demand, and the aluminum alloy output has slightly increased due to the rebound in processing fees. Overall, the supply - demand structure of industrial silicon will reach a new balance in October, and the futures price is expected to remain stable and fluctuate [3][49]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2025 September Industrial Silicon Market Review - Industrial silicon futures price fluctuated within a range: In September 2025, the main 2511 contract of industrial silicon futures fluctuated between 8215 - 9325 yuan/ton, with the price center remaining flat compared to the previous month. The improvement in industrial enterprise profit growth, the implementation of anti - involution policies, and the improvement in the production profit of photovoltaic upstream and mid - stream enterprises supported the price, but the decline in polysilicon prices dragged down market sentiment. By the end of September, the national furnace - opening number increased to 311, with a month - on - month increase of 23. From the demand side, polysilicon enterprises' production cuts were less than expected, silicon wafer price support was limited, photovoltaic battery supply - demand was in a tight balance, and component price increases were stagnant. As of September 30, the main 2511 contract closed at 8640 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 2.98% [8]. - The spot market fluctuated: In September, the average production cost of industrial silicon was 9095.49 yuan/ton, remaining flat month - on - month. The social inventory was high, and the traditional industries' demand was weak. The anti - involution policy was expected to suppress the medium - term demand for industrial silicon. By the end of September, the prices of mainstream grades such as 553, 441, 421, and 3303 showed different degrees of increase. It is expected that in October, the prices of domestic mainstream grades will mainly fluctuate upwards [9][10][12]. Macroeconomic Analysis - In September, the central bank emphasized moderately loose monetary policy, strengthened counter - cyclical adjustment, and created a suitable monetary and financial environment for economic recovery. The RMB exchange rate was basically stable, and the financial market operated smoothly. China's September official manufacturing PMI rose to 49.8, and the industrial enterprise profit in August increased by 20.4% year - on - year. The equipment manufacturing industry played a significant role in driving profit growth, and some traditional industries turned losses into profits. China's economic long - term trend of steady improvement remained unchanged [14][16]. Fundamental Analysis - Northern production slowly recovered, and the capacity in Sichuan and Yunnan was strongly released during the wet season: In September, the operating rate of silicon enterprises in Xinjiang rose to about 70%, and the capacity in the southwest was strongly released due to the decline in electricity prices during the wet season. The new production increments in Inner Mongolia and Gansu were limited. The national industrial silicon output in September was 42.1 tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 7.3%. As of September 26, the national furnace - opening rate rose to 39.1%. Overall, the supply side was relatively loose [18][19][20]. - Exports maintained stable growth in August: From January to August, the cumulative export volume of industrial silicon was 49.1 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 18%. The export volume in August was 7.66 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 18%. The export destinations were mainly in Southeast Asia. It is expected that the export volume in October will recover to about 8 tons [24]. - The social inventory fluctuated at a high level in September: As of September 30, the national industrial silicon social inventory rose to 54.5 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.4 tons. The warehouse receipt inventory at the Guangzhou Futures Exchange continued to rise. It is expected that the social inventory will slightly increase in October [29]. - Polysilicon production cuts were less than expected, and silicon enterprises' production profit turned losses into profits: In September, the polysilicon output was 12.5 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 16.7%. The cumulative output from January to September was 81.13 tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 33.2%. The ex - factory price of polysilicon dense material was 51 yuan/kg. In October, the production is expected to increase by 0.3 tons month - on - month. For silicon wafers, the production plan is waiting for the component export tax - rebate policy. For batteries, the price increased, but new orders decreased. For components, the price increase was limited. The recycling of retired photovoltaic components has broad prospects [32]. - The operating rate of silicone declined, and the DMC spot price slightly increased: In September, the output of silicone DMC was 20.88 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 4.9%. The average operating rate of silicone monomer enterprises dropped to 72.84%. The DMC spot price rose to 11050 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 13.3%. It is expected that the DMC price will slightly increase in October [35]. - The aluminum alloy output slightly increased, and the aluminum rod processing fee stabilized and rebounded: From January to August, the aluminum alloy output was 1232.4 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 15.3%. The output in August was 163.5 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 15.2%. The average processing fee of 6063 aluminum rods in August was 206 yuan/ton. It is expected that the aluminum alloy output will slightly decline in October [36]. Market Outlook - Macroeconomically, China's economic long - term trend of steady improvement remains unchanged. On the supply side, the supply is steadily recovering, and social inventory fluctuates at a high level. On the demand side, the demand structure is being adjusted, and the overall supply - demand will reach a new balance. It is expected that the industrial silicon futures price will remain stable and fluctuate in October, and attention should be paid to the implementation of anti - involution policies [49][51].
供应略显宽松，工业硅偏弱震荡
Tong Guan Jin Yuan Qi Huo·2025-10-13 02:44