新世纪期货交易提示（2025-10-13）-20251013

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Volatile [2] - Coking coal and coke: Volatile and weakening [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coils: Adjusting [2] - Glass: Volatile [2] - Soda ash: Volatile [2] - CSI 50: Volatile [4] - CSI 300: Volatile [4] - CSI 500: Downward [4] - CSI 1000: Downward [4] - 2-year Treasury bonds: Volatile [4] - 5-year Treasury bonds: Volatile [4] - 10-year Treasury bonds: Upward [4] - Gold: Strongly volatile [4] - Silver: Strongly volatile [4] - Logs: Range-bound [6] - Pulp: Consolidating [6] - Offset paper: Volatile [6] - Soybean oil: Widely volatile [6] - Palm oil: Widely volatile [6] - Rapeseed oil: Widely volatile [6] - Soybean meal: Volatile and bearish [6] - Rapeseed meal: Volatile and bearish [6] - Soybean No. 2: Volatile and bearish [6] - Soybean No. 1: Volatile and bearish [7] - Live pigs: Volatile and bullish [7] - Rubber: Volatile [7] - PX: Wait-and-see [8] - PTA: Volatile [8] - MEG: Wait-and-see [8] - PR: Wait-and-see [8] - PF: Wait-and-see [8] Core Views - The black sector is affected by tariff expectations, and the price trends of different varieties vary. The financial market is influenced by trade policies, and the bond and precious metal markets show specific trends. The light industrial and agricultural product markets are affected by supply and demand, policies, and weather. The polyester market has complex supply and demand situations and price trends [2][4][6] Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - Iron ore: Affected by Trump's tariff pressure and supply-side news, the short-term unilateral drive is not strong, and the price trend is relatively stronger than that of finished products. The key lies in steel demand after the holiday [2] - Coking coal and coke: Tariff expectations suppress the black sector. Domestic coking coal production is expected to be lower than last year, and the demand for coke is strong. The first round of coke price increases has been implemented, and the second round has basically failed [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coils: The static valuation of rebar is low, and the supply pressure is slightly high. Focus on the demand recovery in October. The high supply and continuous inventory accumulation of finished products bring pressure, and the price needs to cooperate with rapid de-stocking to stabilize [2] - Glass: The short-term supply and demand pattern has not improved significantly, and the inventory has increased. The real estate completion decline drags down the demand. Pay attention to the demand repair in the peak season and production capacity policies [2] - Soda ash: The short-term supply and demand are basically balanced. Pay attention to the marginal repair in the peak season [2] Financial Sector - Stock index futures/options: The stock index closed down in the previous trading day. Soft drinks and forestry sectors had capital inflows, while semiconductors and computer hardware sectors had outflows. The market risk aversion sentiment has increased, and it is recommended to reduce risk preference [4] - Treasury bonds: The yield of 10-year Treasury bonds has declined, and the market trend is upward. Hold long positions in Treasury bonds [4] - Gold and silver: Gold is in a strongly volatile state. Its pricing mechanism is changing, and it is affected by factors such as the US debt problem, interest rates, geopolitical risks, and physical demand. Silver also shows a similar trend [4] Light Industry and Agriculture - Logs: The port daily shipment volume has increased, the supply pressure is not large, and the cost support has increased. It is expected to be range-bound [6] - Pulp: The spot market price has mixed trends, and the cost support has increased. However, the demand improvement is uncertain, and it is expected to consolidate at the bottom [6] - Offset paper: The spot market price is stable, the production is relatively stable, and the demand is expected to improve. It is expected to be volatile [6] - Oils and fats: The global trade situation is deteriorating, and the supply of oils and fats is abundant. It is expected to continue the wide-range volatile pattern [6] - Meal products: The global trade relationship has deteriorated, and the supply pressure of meal products is increasing. It is expected to be volatile and bearish [6] - Live pigs: The average transaction weight is declining, the supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. It is expected to be volatile and weak in the short term [7] - Rubber: The supply pressure in Yunnan has decreased, and the production in Hainan is lower than expected. The demand and inventory situation are complex, and it is expected to be volatile [7] Polyester Industry - PX: The supply and demand are increasing, and the price follows the oil price [8] - PTA: The supply and demand have marginally improved, but the terminal orders are weaker than expected. The price follows the cost [8] - MEG: The port inventory has increased, the supply pressure has increased, and the short-term cost fluctuates greatly [8] - PR: The post-holiday replenishment is weak, and the market may be volatile and weak [8] - PF: The cost support is still weak, but the downstream start-up is stable. It is expected to be volatile and sorted [8]