“流动性笔记”系列之五：美元的“十字路口”

Group 1: Dollar Performance and Trends - The dollar index rose to a high of 99.6 on October 9, marking the highest level since early August, following a strong appreciation since October 6[5] - The dollar's rebound can be divided into three phases, with the first phase seeing a rise from 96.6 to 98.6, an increase of 2.1%[14] - The second phase, from September 26 to October 3, saw a slight decline in the dollar index to 97.7 due to government shutdown concerns[17] - The third phase, from October 6 to October 9, was driven by political turmoil in Japan and France, leading to a spike in the dollar index to 99.6[18] Group 2: Factors Influencing Dollar Rebound - The rebound is viewed as a temporary phase within a longer-term depreciation trend, with four main reasons for potential difficulty in sustaining the rise[6] - The expectation of a prolonged government shutdown could lead to renewed downward pressure on the dollar, with a 67% probability of a shutdown lasting more than 15 days[21] - Recent political changes in Japan and France are seen as one-time events that are unlikely to alter the dollar's long-term trajectory significantly[25] - Ongoing trade tensions between the U.S. and China may act as a new resistance to the dollar's rebound, potentially counteracting its recent gains[26] Group 3: Economic Indicators and Predictions - The U.S. economy shows resilience, with GDP growth for Q3 2025 projected at 3.8%, which diminishes the necessity for aggressive rate cuts[28] - Market expectations indicate that the Federal Reserve may lower rates 2-4 times by the end of 2026, which is ahead of the Fed's own guidance[29] - The dollar's long-term depreciation hypothesis suggests that a stable dollar index below 95 or 90 requires new "game changers" such as significant fiscal tightening or unexpected monetary policy shifts in non-U.S. economies[34]