氧化铝及电解铝月报：消息面影响反复，铝价震荡偏好-20251013

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Overall, influenced by repeated news and with the alumina supply under pressure and the electrolytic aluminum consumption in the peak season, the aluminum price shows a volatile and positive trend [2][3][59] - There are risks such as Fed policy changes and a significant weakening of consumption [3] Summary According to the Directory 1. Market Review - Alumina futures: In September, it continuously declined, reaching a monthly high of 3048 yuan/ton and a low of 2862 yuan/ton, and closed at 2904 yuan/ton at the end of the month, down 4.35% [9] - Shanghai aluminum futures: In September, it first rose and then fell, reaching a high of 21130 yuan/ton and closing at 20625 yuan/ton, up 0.25% [9] - LME aluminum: In September, it also first rose and then fell, with a high of 2720 US dollars/ton, and the performance was slightly weaker than that of Shanghai aluminum [9] 2. Macroeconomic Analysis Overseas - The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP in September, and there are differences within the Fed on further interest rate cuts [12] - US economic data: In August, PPI was negative for the first time in four months, CPI increased moderately, ADP employment decreased, GDP growth rate increased, manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs declined, retail sales increased, and the real estate market was weak [12][13] - European economic data: In the second quarter of 2025, the GDP growth rate declined slightly, the ZEW economic sentiment index rebounded slightly, the consumer confidence index improved, the manufacturing capacity utilization rate increased, and the European Central Bank's attitude towards interest rate cuts was cautious [14] Domestic - In August, industrial added value, service industry production index, and social consumer goods retail sales increased, while fixed - asset investment increased slightly. Import and export growth rates declined, CPI was negative, and PPI ended its continuous decline [15][16] - It is expected that stable - growth policies will be introduced in the fourth quarter [19] 3. Alumina Market Analysis Bauxite - Domestic bauxite: In September, the overall domestic mine opening rate was low, and the market price fluctuated slightly [21] - Imported bauxite: In August, imports decreased month - on - month and increased year - on - year. The long - term order price in the fourth quarter may decline, and attention should be paid to policy changes in Guinea [22] - Overall, the price of bauxite may be slightly weaker [22] Alumina Supply - Production: In August, the output increased year - on - year, and it is expected that the supply will still be slightly excessive in September. Some production capacity may decrease in October [23][25] - Import and export: In August, it maintained a net export pattern, and imports are expected to increase in October [25] Alumina Inventory and Spot - Inventory: By the end of September, the exchange inventory increased significantly for the second consecutive month [26] - Spot premium: In September, the alumina spot premium was high at first and then low, and the high premium led to high enthusiasm for spot delivery [26] Alumina Cost and Profit - In August, the average cost of the alumina industry decreased slightly, mainly due to the decrease in the cost of imported ores [27] Alumina Outlook - The supply pressure is large, the cost support is weakened, but some production capacity is in the theoretical loss stage. If there is concentrated production reduction and the consumption in the northwest region increases during the winter storage period, the price may stop falling [3][28][59] 4. Electrolytic Aluminum Market Analysis Electrolytic Aluminum Supply - Domestic production: In August, the output increased year - on - year. In September, the production capacity increased slightly, and it is expected that the output of electrolytic aluminum in China and the world (excluding China) will be 362.5 million tons and 237 million tons respectively [32] - Import and export: In August, imports increased year - on - year and decreased month - on - month, exports increased year - on - year and decreased month - on - month, and net imports increased year - on - year. It is expected that imports will continue to decrease slightly [34] Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory - By the end of September, the aluminum ingot inventory decreased, the aluminum rod inventory decreased, the social inventory decreased but the decline was weaker than in previous years, the SHFE inventory was flat, and the LME inventory increased [35] Electrolytic Aluminum Spot - In September, the spot premium was stable at a discount of 10 - 20 yuan/ton at the beginning and end of the month, and the LME premium was high at first and then low [36] Electrolytic Aluminum Cost and Profit - In September, the average cost of the electrolytic aluminum industry decreased, and the profit increased [37] 5. Consumption Analysis Aluminum Processing - In September, the overall performance of aluminum processing improved month - on - month, but was still weaker than the traditional peak season year - on - year [51] Domestic Terminal Consumption - Real estate: The new construction scale is at a low level, and the completion area continues to decline [52] - New energy vehicles: In August, retail sales increased year - on - year and month - on - month, and exports increased year - on - year. It is expected to continue to drive aluminum consumption [53] - Power: From January to August, the investment in power grid construction increased year - on - year, and the order volume in the fourth quarter and next year is guaranteed [53] - Photovoltaic: In August, the new installed capacity decreased year - on - year and month - on - month, but component exports increased. It is expected that exports will boost demand [54] Aluminum Product Exports - In August, the export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products decreased year - on - year. Although affected by US tariffs, it still showed strong resilience [55][56] 6. Market Outlook - Macro: The US economic situation gives room for the Fed to cut interest rates, but the tariff policy is volatile. There are still policy expectations in the domestic fourth quarter [59] - Alumina: The supply pressure is large, the cost support is weakened, but there may be a stop - falling opportunity when the supply and demand are improved [59] - Electrolytic Aluminum: The supply increase pressure is not large, the consumption is in the peak season, and the price has support, but it is restricted by macro fluctuations and other factors [60]