长牛逻辑坚实，短期波动或加剧

Report Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. Core Views - In the short term, due to factors such as the Fed's independence crisis, US government shutdown, monetary easing expectations, geopolitical tensions, central bank gold - buying, and investment inflows into gold and silver ETFs, precious metal prices have risen strongly and hit new highs. However, long - position funds are crowded, and speculative funds may take profits. There is a risk of short - term adjustment, but Sino - US tariff friction will limit the adjustment space, and prices may adjust through high - level oscillations [3][49]. - In the long term, the safe - haven and monetary attributes of precious metals are strengthening, and the logic for long - term price increases remains solid. Precious metal prices are still in a long - term upward trend and will hit new highs in the future [3][49]. Summary by Directory 1. Precious Metal Market Review - In September 2025, precious metal prices continued to rise strongly. COMEX gold futures broke through the previous high of $3509.9 per ounce in September, and after the Fed's rate cut, prices hit new highs, with a 10.57% increase in September and breaking through $4000 in early October. COMEX silver futures showed stronger performance, with a 14.94% monthly increase in September and approaching the historical high of $50 per ounce on October 9 [8]. - Domestic precious metal prices were slightly stronger than overseas. Shanghai gold futures rose 11.37% in September, and Shanghai silver futures rose 16.32% and hit a historical high of 11,490 yuan per kilogram on October 9 [8]. 2. Analysis of Factors Affecting Precious Metal Prices 2.1 US Government Shutdown Intensifies Dollar Credit Crisis - The US government shut down again on September 30 due to a dispute between the two parties over the extension of medical insurance subsidies. The shutdown may last more than 15 days, with about 750,000 government employees on unpaid leave. This exposes political struggles and a trust - system collapse, intensifying the US government's and the dollar's credit crises, and strengthening the safe - haven and monetary attributes of precious metals [15][16]. 2.2 Trade Tensions Remain High and Tariff Frictions Escalate Again - The US has frequently imposed tariffs on trading partners. It imposed a 15% tariff on EU automobiles and parts from August 1, and announced new high - tariff policies on multiple products from October 1. On October 10, it was announced that a 100% tariff would be imposed on all Chinese imports from November 1, which is a retaliation against China's new rare - earth export controls and a way to divert domestic contradictions [17][18]. 2.3 The US Economy Remains Resilient and Rate Cuts Will Continue - Except for employment data, the US economy shows relative resilience. The second - quarter GDP growth was 3.8%, and inflation data was in line with expectations. The market's previous pricing of a US economic recession may be revised, and the dollar index may stabilize and rebound in the short term. The Fed officials have different views on monetary policy, but the market generally expects rate cuts in October and December [19][20]. 3. Analysis of Market Structure and Capital Flows 3.1 Changes in the Gold - Silver Ratio - In September, silver prices were stronger than gold prices, and the COMEX gold - silver ratio dropped from 88.6 to around 81.7, and the Shanghai gold - silver ratio dropped from 85 to around 79. Although silver prices have risen significantly in the past two months, they are still relatively low compared to gold, and the ratio may continue to decline [23]. 3.2 Changes in Futures - Spot and Domestic - Overseas Price Spreads - Domestic precious metal prices are closely linked to overseas prices, and there is usually a premium in the domestic market. In September, the spread between Shanghai gold futures and COMEX gold futures was negative, and the spread between Shanghai silver futures and COMEX silver futures narrowed, with a rare negative spread on October 9, indicating a tight overseas silver spot market [25]. 3.3 Central Bank Gold - Buying Trends - Since 2010, global central banks have been net buyers of gold. In 2024, they bought over 1000 tons of gold. In the second quarter of 2025, central bank purchases slowed down, with a net purchase of 166 tons, a 21% year - on - year decrease. China's central bank increased its gold reserves by 40,000 ounces (about 1.24 tons) in September, the 11th consecutive month of increase [30][31]. 3.4 Changes in Precious Metal Inventories - Since December last year, COMEX gold inventories have increased significantly, and as of October 8, 2025, they were about 1247 tons, a 2.93% month - on - month and 135% year - on - year increase. COMEX silver inventories also increased, and as of October 8, 2025, they were about 16,428 tons, a 1.89% month - on - month and 72% year - on - year increase. The total silver inventories of the Shanghai Gold and Futures Exchanges decreased by 116 tons in September [32][34]. 3.5 Analysis of Gold and Silver ETF Holdings - In recent months, the holdings of the world's largest gold and silver ETFs have increased slightly. As of October 9, the SPDR gold ETF held 1014 tons of gold, and the iShares silver ETF held 15,415 tons of silver. Investment funds are no longer the main driver of precious metal prices, but geopolitical and macro - economic uncertainties will strengthen the safe - haven and wealth - preservation attributes of gold [41][42]. 3.6 Changes in CFTC Positions - As of September 23, 2025, the non - commercial net long positions of COMEX gold futures were 266,749 contracts, and those of COMEX silver futures were 52,276 contracts. The inflow of speculative funds was the direct factor driving the precious metal price increase in September [45]. 4. Market Outlook and Trading Strategies - In the short term, beware of adjustment risks, and prices may adjust through high - level oscillations. In the long term, the logic for precious metal price increases remains solid, and prices will hit new highs [49].