供需驱动有限，铁矿震荡为主

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In September, the demand for iron ore from steel mills was strong, with the daily average hot metal production remaining above 2.4 million tons. However, in October, the demand for iron ore will face challenges, and the domestic hot metal production may slightly decline from the current high level of 2.4 million tons per day [3]. - In September, the overseas shipment of iron ore decreased month - on - month but remained at a high level in recent years. In October, the supply of imported ore will be mainly stable, with both shipments and arrivals decreasing month - on - month and increasing year - on - year [3]. - In the next month, macro factors may dominate the market trend. With the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut and the weakening of the US dollar, there is support from the macro - side. The supply and demand drivers are not strong, so it is expected that iron ore will show a volatile trend, with the price range of 700 - 890 yuan/ton [3]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Market Review - In September, iron ore showed a high - level volatile and pre - holiday weakening trend. The global weekly average shipment volume increased by 2% month - on - month, and the inventory of 45 ports decreased to 138 million tons. The hot metal production remained at a high level of 2.4 million tons per day, but the steel mill profitability rate decreased from 62.2% to 58%. By the end of September, the 62% Platts index fell 0.1% to $103.45/ton, and the PB powder spot price fell 1 yuan to 778 yuan/wet ton [8]. - Looking forward to October, the terminal demand pressure remains, the inventory pressure of finished products increases, the space for further increase in blast furnace production is limited, and the supply - demand contradiction of iron ore increases [8]. 2. Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Demand Adjusts at a High Level and Its Resilience Faces Challenges - In September, the demand from steel mills was strong, but the terminal was weak. The daily average hot metal production of steel mills remained above 2.4 million tons, and the profitability rate of 247 steel mills was 56.71% at the beginning of October, 19 percentage points higher than the same period last year. However, the terminal steel demand continued to weaken. In October, the demand for iron ore will face challenges, and the domestic hot metal production may slightly decline [12]. - Overseas, the Fed is expected to cut interest rates. The crude steel production of major iron ore - importing countries has been poor. In August 2025, the global crude steel production of 70 countries/regions increased by 0.3% year - on - year [13]. 2.2 Supply: Overseas Shipments Remain at a High Level - From January to August, China's iron ore imports decreased year - on - year. In September, the overseas shipments decreased month - on - month but were at a high level in recent years. The weekly average shipment from Brazil was 6.78 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.35 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 0.63 million tons; the weekly average shipment from Australia was 15.94 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.12 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 0.4 million tons. In October, the supply of imported ore will be mainly stable [17][18]. 2.3 Iron Ore Port Inventory - By the beginning of October, the total iron ore inventory of 45 ports was 140.24 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.99 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 10.81 million tons. In the fourth quarter, the port inventory may continue to accumulate [21]. 2.4 Steel Mill Inventory - In September, steel mills actively replenished inventory, and the in - plant inventory increased significantly. By the beginning of October, the total inventory of imported iron ore in steel mills was 100.36 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.96 million tons. After the National Day holiday, the inventory decreased rapidly [34]. 2.5 Domestic Mine Production - From January to August, the domestic iron ore production was weakly stable with regional differentiation. The national domestic ore production decreased by 1.839 million tons year - on - year. In September, the domestic mine production was still in a tight supply pattern, and the annual production is expected to decrease by 500,000 - 1 million tons [35][38]. 2.6 Freight Rates - In September, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was strong, but it has weakened since October. As of October 9, the BDI index was 1923 points, a month - on - month decrease of 8.9%. The shipping market sentiment fluctuated with the change of Chinese steel mills' replenishment [39]. 3. Market Outlook - In the next month, macro factors may dominate the market trend. The Fed's interest rate cut expectation is increasing, and the weakening of the US dollar supports commodity prices. The supply and demand drivers are not strong, and it is expected that iron ore will show a volatile trend, with the price range of 700 - 890 yuan/ton [43].