甲醇周报：基本面依旧偏弱，甲醇或延续震荡-20251013

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The fundamentals of methanol remain weak, and the methanol market is expected to continue its volatile trend in the short term. Although the downward space may be limited, the high port inventory will continue to suppress prices. It is advisable to wait and see before the supply - demand situation improves and the port inventory is substantially reduced [7][8][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Methanol Trend Review Last week, the fundamentals of methanol were still weak, and the methanol futures fluctuated. By the Friday afternoon close, the weighted methanol futures closed at 2,314 yuan/ton, down 0.77% from the previous week. The spot market was weak after the holiday due to high supply pressure, while the inland market was relatively stable. The price ranges in Jiangsu and Guangdong were 2,190 - 2,290 yuan/ton and 2,220 - 2,270 yuan/ton respectively [11]. 3.2 Methanol Fundamental Analysis - Production: Last week, China's methanol production was 2,032,905 tons, an increase of 103,580 tons from the previous week. The capacity utilization rate was 89.59%, a week - on - week increase of 5.36% due to more restarts than overhauls [14]. - Downstream Demand: As of October 9, the capacity utilization rates of some downstream products showed different trends. The MTO industry maintained high - level operation, while the capacity utilization rates of dimethyl ether, formaldehyde, and glacial acetic acid decreased, and that of chlorides increased [16][17]. - Inventory: As of October 9, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 339,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.08%, and the order backlog was 115,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 57.79%. The port sample inventory was 1,543,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.42% [19][21]. - Profit: Last week, the weekly average profit of domestic methanol samples showed differences. The coal - to - methanol profit increased slightly, while the theoretical profits of coke - oven gas - to - methanol and natural gas - to - methanol were squeezed [23]. 3.3 Methanol Trend Outlook - Supply: This week, domestic methanol production is expected to be about 2.0402 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of about 89.91%, an increase from last week. - Downstream Demand: The operating rates of different downstream products are expected to change. The industry operating rate of olefins may decline slightly, while the capacity utilization rates of dimethyl ether and formaldehyde are expected to increase, and those of glacial acetic acid and chlorides are expected to decrease. - Inventory: The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is expected to be 333,700 tons, with a slight reduction. The port inventory is expected to continue to accumulate. Overall, the fundamentals of methanol will improve limitedly, and it will likely continue to fluctuate in the short term [27][28][30].