Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short term, the corn futures market will be dominated by the pressure of new grain concentrated listing, maintaining a volatile downward trend. The moving - average lines on the chart show a bearish arrangement, with a weak technical pattern. It may continue to test the support level of the 2100 - yuan integer mark. In the medium term, it is necessary to wait for the supply pressure to be released and the demand side to substantially recover. There may be a phased layout opportunity in late October [6][61]. 3. Directory Summaries 3.1.走势回顾 (Review of Trends) - Futures Prices: After the holiday, the corn futures market was weak, showing a downward - opening, low - running, and volatile downward trend. As of last Friday's close, the main corn contract C2511 closed at 2125 yuan/ton, down 0.51% from the previous trading day. The market trading was active, with a trading volume of 393,175 lots and an open interest of 591,363 lots. The CBOT corn main - continuous contract closed at 413.5 cents per bushel, down 1.14% [4][10][15]. - Spot Prices: The weekly average price of national corn last week was 2336 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton from the previous week. In the Northeast production area, the purchase price of new grain generally decreased. In North China, due to continuous rainfall delaying the harvest, the price fluctuated downward. In the sales area, new grain led the decline, and old grain followed. The price of ports first decreased and then stabilized. The purchase price of Shekou Port was 2370 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton from before the National Day [5][17][20]. 3.2.上周相关信息回顾 (Review of Relevant Information Last Week) - Analysts expected that the net sales volume of US corn exports in the week ending October 2, 2025, would be between 1.2 million and 2 million tons. From January to August this year, Russia exported more than 287,000 tons of corn to China, three times the export volume of the same period last year. In September, Brazil's corn export volume was 7.563 million tons. In October 2025, Brazil's corn export volume is expected to be between 5.81 million and 6.3 million tons, with an average of 6.06 million tons, a 6.8% increase from October last year. As of October 7, Kazakhstan had harvested 13.6 million tons of grains. As of October 8, Ukraine's grain export volume in the 2025/26 season was 6.937 million tons, a decrease of 4.8 million tons or 40.9% from the same period last year. As of October 3, the daily average ethanol production was 1.071 million barrels per day. As of October 10, more than half of the autumn grain in the country had been harvested. As of October 10, Ukraine's grain harvest in 2025 had reached 33.03 million tons [21][22]. 3.3.玉米供需格局分析 (Analysis of Corn Supply - Demand Pattern) - Feed Enterprises' Inventory: As of October 9, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 24.49 days, down 0.72 days from the previous week, a 2.86% month - on - month decrease and a 6.06% year - on - year decrease. During the holiday, the inventory slightly decreased because enterprises mainly consumed previous orders, with limited new purchase orders [26]. - Deep - processing Enterprises' Corn Inventory: The total corn inventory of 96 major corn deep - processing enterprises last week was 2.334 million tons, a 14.64% increase from before the holiday but a 14% decrease year - on - year. The inventory decreased as new grain entered the market, and enterprises mainly made rigid replenishments for short - term production needs [29]. - Deep - processing Enterprises' Corn Consumption: Last week, 149 major corn deep - processing enterprises consumed 1.1927 million tons of corn, a month - on - month increase of 31,600 tons. Different types of enterprises had different consumption changes [34]. - Deep - processing Enterprises' Startup Situation: Last week, the total corn processing volume was 544,500 tons, an increase of 17,800 tons from before the holiday. The weekly corn starch output was 268,000 tons, an increase of 12,200 tons from before the holiday. The weekly startup rate was 51.81%, up 2.36% from before the holiday [39]. - Deep - processing Enterprises' Profit Situation: Last week, the hedging by - product profit of corn starch in Jilin was - 235 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton month - on - month; in Shandong, it was - 81 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan/ton month - on - month; in Heilongjiang, it was - 178 yuan/ton, up 79 yuan/ton month - on - month. Deep - processing enterprises generally adopted a "low - inventory + fast - turnover" strategy [44]. 3.4.关联品情况分析 (Analysis of Related Products) - Corn Starch: Last week, the corn starch market was weak. The mainstream transaction prices in Shandong, Hebei, Jilin, and Heilongjiang all decreased compared with before the holiday. The concentrated listing of new corn dragged down the price of corn starch, and downstream buyers were in a wait - and - see mood [50][51]. - Pigs: Last week, the pig price dropped significantly. As of last Friday, the national average pig slaughter price was 11.14 yuan/kg, down 1.1 yuan/kg from before the holiday, a nearly 9% month - on - month decrease. After the double festivals, the pig market was characterized by strong supply and weak demand. The slaughter rate of key slaughtering enterprises decreased after October 5, and the price of white - striped pork fell in tandem with the pig price [59][60]. 3.5.后市展望 (Market Outlook) - In the short term, the corn futures market will be dominated by the pressure of new grain concentrated listing, maintaining a volatile downward trend. In the medium term, it is necessary to wait for the supply pressure to be released and the demand side to substantially recover. There may be a phased layout opportunity in late October [61]. 3.6.操作策略 (Operation Strategies) - Single - side Trading: Adopt a short - selling strategy at high prices for near - month contracts. - Arbitrage: Continue to hold reverse spreads. - Options: Construct a bear - spread strategy [7][62].
玉米周报：新粮集中上市施压，价格延续弱势震荡-20251013
Hua Long Qi Huo·2025-10-13 03:06