Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - After a high - level oscillation in September, the stock index is expected to enter a direction - selection phase again and is likely to maintain a bullish trend. In the short term, due to Sino - US trade issues, market risk - aversion sentiment may intensify, and stock market volatility may increase. Domestically, the liquidity environment is expected to remain loose, and residents may increase their allocation of equity assets. With the Fed's interest rate cuts and RMB appreciation, external funds are also expected to flow into the domestic market. In terms of market style, although technology growth has been the core theme of the current upward market trend, considering the expected increase in Q4's growth - stabilization policies and the resonance of global monetary and fiscal policies, the market style in Q4 may shift towards value and become more balanced compared to Q3 [2] Summary by Directory 1. Stock Index Futures Market - IF Contracts: The previous day's closing prices of IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 4613.80, 4600.40, 4592.20, and 4571.80 respectively, with declines of 98.20, 102.80, 102.20, and 100.80. The trading volumes were 43832.00, 5422.00, 96227.00, and 16669.00, and the positions were 51030.00, 9132.00, 162971.00, and 55448.00, with position changes of - 3181.00, 1427.00, - 329.00, and 3589.00 [1] - IH Contracts: The previous day's closing prices of IH contracts were 2976.00, 2973.60, 2975.80, and 2974.00, with declines of 46.80, 48.60, 48.40, and 49.80. The trading volumes were 20378.00, 3053.00, 43708.00, and 6794.00, and the positions were 21085.00, 3090.00, 67688.00, and 13880.00, with position changes of 13.00, 793.00, 840.00, and 524.00 [1] - IC Contracts: The previous day's closing prices of IC contracts were 7382.00, 7311.20, 7266.00, and 7100.60, with declines of 149.40, 160.40, 166.80, and 171.60. The trading volumes were 39765.00, 10064.00, 99771.00, and 20790.00, and the positions were 50530.00, 18841.00, 140200.00, and 50503.00, with position changes of - 6184.00, 3029.00, - 3614.00, and - 1513.00 [1] - IM Contracts: The previous day's closing prices of IM contracts were 7514.20, 7421.80, 7340.40, and 7120.00, with declines of 104.60, 117.60, 127.40, and 128.80. The trading volumes were 53416.00, 15411.00, 140881.00, and 23742.00, and the positions were 70956.00, 22199.00, 183267.00, and 80505.00, with position changes of - 2937.00, 6180.00, 1106.00, and - 498.00 [1] - Inter - month Spreads: The current inter - month spreads of IF (next month - current month), IH (next month - current month), IC (next month - current month), and IM (next month - current month) were - 13.40, - 2.40, - 70.80, and - 92.40 respectively, compared to previous values of - 9.60, - 0.80, - 62.40, and - 80.60 [1] 2. Stock Index Spot Market - Major Indexes: The previous day's values of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indexes were 4616.83, 2974.85, 7398.22, and 7533.82 respectively, with declines of 1.97%, 1.51%, 2.00%, and 1.49%. Their trading volumes (in billions of lots) were 319.02, 67.28, 262.26, and 290.43, and total trading amounts (in billions of yuan) were 7927.43, 2001.81, 5021.27, and 4857.04 [1] - Industry Indexes: Among industries, energy rose 0.88%, while raw materials, industry, optional consumption, major consumption, medical and health, real - estate finance, information technology, telecom business, and public utilities had changes of - 2.23%, - 3.07%, - 1.22%, - 0.12%, - 2.74%, 0.48%, - 5.58%, - 1.41%, and 0.18% respectively [1] 3. Futures - Spot Basis - IF Contracts: The previous day's basis values of IF contracts (current month - CSI 300, next month - CSI 300, next quarter - CSI 300, far - quarter - CSI 300) were - 3.03, - 16.43, - 24.63, and - 45.03 [1] - IH Contracts: The previous day's basis values of IH contracts (current month - SSE 50, next month - SSE 50, next quarter - SSE 50, far - quarter - SSE 50) were 1.15, - 1.25, 0.95, and - 0.85 [1] - IC Contracts: The previous day's basis values of IC contracts (current month - CSI 500, next month - CSI 500, next quarter - CSI 500, far - quarter - CSI 500) were - 16.22, - 87.02, - 132.22, and - 297.62 [1] - IM Contracts: The previous day's basis values of IM contracts (current month - CSI 1000, next month - CSI 1000, next quarter - CSI 1000, far - quarter - CSI 1000) were - 19.62, - 112.02, - 193.42, and - 413.82 [1] 4. Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - Domestic Indexes: The previous day's values of the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - sized Board Index, and ChiNext Index were 3897.03, 13355.42, 8293.71, and 3113.26 respectively, with declines of 0.94%, 2.70%, 2.86%, and 4.55% [1] - Overseas Indexes: The previous day's values of the Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, S&P 500, and DAX Index were 26290.32, 48580.44, 6552.51, and 24241.46 respectively, with changes of - 1.73%, 1.77%, - 2.71%, and - 1.50% [1] 5. Macroeconomic Information - China's rare - earth export control is not a ban. The US plan to impose 100% tariffs on China seriously damages China's interests, and China firmly opposes it. China is not afraid of a tariff war. US Vice - President Vance signaled a potential easing of the trade situation, saying Trump is willing to have rational negotiations with China [2] - The National Conference on Scientific and Technological Innovation in the Industrial and Information Technology Sector was held, emphasizing the construction of a modern industrial scientific and technological innovation system [2] 6. Industry Information - The 138th Canton Fair will open on October 15, with record - high exhibition scale and pre - registered buyers. It signals a potential continued resilient growth of China's foreign trade [2] - Supervision on the illegal flow of individual business loans into the real - estate market has been strengthened, and the risks of such loans are emerging as they reach maturity and real - estate values decline [2] - The "report - price - alignment" policy will be implemented in the non - auto insurance sector. Major insurance companies have set up working groups to implement regulatory requirements [2]
申银万国期货早间策略-20251013
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo·2025-10-13 03:06